Here we go again…
Well, another season down and another regime change. I’d be the first
one to say that former Browns Head Coach Pat Shurmer was not the guy to take
Cleveland to the next level. His offense was boring and Brad Childress wasn’t
any better. And while some are claiming Rob Chudzinski is a fresh and
aggressive offensively-minded head coach in waiting, I remember his lack of
offensive inventiveness in 2007-08 and wanted him gone then as an OC. I would have preferred someone with a better
track record of success as a head coach like Marc Trestman. But the staff
Chudzinki has assembled is impressive thus far and the parts seem to be falling
into place.
The promising, young offensive line that received so much credit at the
beginning of the year got worse as the season went along, with special down
grades to OG’s John Greco and Shane Lauvao. Richardson carried a heavy load and
his decreasing yards per carry average at the end of season was as much due to
poor run blocking in the middle as it was to nagging injuries. But, I’d also be
the first to say former General Manager Tom Heckert did a decent job of
improving the overall quality of the Browns roster he inherited two seasons
ago. There were only a couple picks he made that I was disappointed with,
primarily with his lack of picking up an OG the last two seasons (which you
know I’ve campaigned for endlessly), as well as Owen Marecic (FB) in 2011 and Brandon
Weeden (QB) last year. Additionally, Heckert was neither visibly aggressive in
free agency nor in attempting to wheel and deal around the league. Either way, the
new GM will at least have the comfort of knowing that Chudzinski was not his
choice, nor Weeden for that matter. .
While the Browns seemed to have found a decent WR in Josh Gordon in the
supplemental (2nd round), I think all things being equal I would
have preferred to pass on Weeden and use that second 1st round draft
pick on a WR, thus keeping that 2nd round selection for this
upcoming draft, which has an abundance of CBs, OGs, and WRs, as well as some
project QB’s that could have filled in behind McCoy had he remained the
starting QB. Some have stated that there are no true marquis players this year,
and the desire of multiple teams looking to trade down may make it very
difficult come day one of the draft to get a trading partner. Nonetheless, I
believe if Cleveland’s top one or two choices is gone by the 6th
pick of the first round, don’t be surprised to see them trade down several
spots and pick up an additional 2nd round pick. In fact, given the
possibility of many teams looking to trade down, Cleveland may want to take
advantage now and trade their #6 to Miami or Sand Diego for their 1st
and 2nd round picks. They are both desperate to replace their LT and the Cardinals are vocally interested in LT at #7. Once again Cleveland
holds all the cards, just as they did in last year’s draft.
So, as I begin another early preseason look at the Browns, here are my thoughts
on offseason by position and personnel.
Offense
Cleveland’s offense had some spark last season. There were periods when
they showed confidence and maturity, but for the most part were very
inconsistent and could not be relied on to win games in the clutch week in and
week out.
Quarterback. Brandon Weeden showed confidence in throwing
downfield, but still has issues with consistency and accuracy. He’s likely not
the answer for the future, but he’s good enough for now. Ironically, Thadeus
Lewis’ performance against the Steelers in week 17 could have pushed him to #2 on
the depth chart, but Ex-Bear Jason Campbell will slide in with the McCoy trade
to San Francisco. Besides, you don’t
fall in love with a player after one game, but if he surprises OC Norv Turner
in preseason, he just may be the young strong-armed QB the Browns have wanted
and haven’t given a real second look at yet.
For all the rumors that still swirl around Patriot QB Ryan Mallet, I’d
tell the Browns exec’s to hold off until next season to see how highly the
Patriots tag him as a restricted free agent. If they want a 2nd
round pick then, it could be worth it depending on how the current crop of
Cleveland QB’s perform.
Running Back. Cleveland’s primary back is sewn up with franchise
player Trent Richardson. His bruiser style would be complimented well with a
speedier back than what is currently on the roster. I don’t trust Hardesty’s
first full non-IR season, but he’s locked up through next season. I’m hoping
for the best as he has worked hard to shed weight, improve his game and be a
valuable weapon, but I fully expect him to get injured early this preseason and
be a non-factor again during the regular season. Just playing the odds here. Ogbonnaya is similar to Hardesty in size but
is a better receiver while having less success running the ball. But since only
three RBs remain on the roster, I expect the Browns to sign a free agent or
invite a couple non-drafted FA’s to camp. They simply do not have enough draft
picks this years to spend one just to fill out their RB depth chart.
Browns acquire Dion Lewis in a trade with Philadelphia
Eagles on 4/11/13. Lewis’ scouting report out of college indicates a shifty
back with decent open field speed and elusiveness, having good vision and
ability to cut back to find open lanes. Downsides include poor leg strength and
inability to defeat arm tackles, as well as the need to improve his pass
blocking. Overall a decent pick-up for the depth chart, compliments
Richardson’s bruiser running-style, and more importantly removes a need to go
after free agents prior to the draft. While there will obviously be several
invites to their preseason camps after the draft, Cleveland’s RB corps is
essentially filled for the coming season.
Full Back. Brad Smelley should have been last season’s
starter given what I consider a more impressive 2012 preseason, although many
disagree with me on this simply because he’s not known for being the best
receiver. But he showed strength and ability to sustain blocks even if he
wasn’t overpowering at the line of scrimmage. Besides, making him a TE prospect
was ridiculous. He was Richardson’s FB in college, and if you are concerned
about his blocking power and receiving skills, why move him to TE? Marecic
should have been cut but since he is the only listed FB on the roster, he’ll
stay until the new coaching staff reviews his game film more closely. I fully
expect to see the Browns draft a FB in the middle rounds, perhaps as high as
the fourth since they picked up an additional 5th round pick from
San Francisco in the Colt McCoy trade.
Wide Receiver. Cleveland’s receivers are young but gained
some real good on-field experience last year. They still don’t have that
premier #1 wideout yet, and Cleveland would be foolish to look to the draft
again although there are temptations once again this draft class. I’m betting
all they really needed was a veteran WR via free agency to provide some
leadership, and ex-Bill Nelson fills that role nicely without being a high risk
pick-up as he rehabs from an ACL injury. As it sat before Nelson’s signing, Cleveland
only had five WRs on roster with a mere seven years of NFL experience between
them. My greatest fear last season was that Greg Little would get a big head
and fail to improve. My fears were validated as he found himself in the
doghouse with coaches and teammates early on for his self-gratifying antics on
the field despite his general poor performance early on. He didn’t measure up
to last season’s stats, but he matured as the season progressed and improved
near the end. Josh Gordon proved to be a
good 2nd round supplemental pick, leading the team in receiving
yards and TD receptions, and may have just become the #1 WR option this team
has lacked for several seasons. Fellow rookie speedster Travis Benjamin also
progressed quicker than I expected, and may find a spot as the new returner in
town as he improves his receiving skills. Ironically, of the three rookie WRs
on the roster, Weeden’s former Oklahoma State teammate Josh Cooper never seemed
to link up well with the QB after being called up, but he deserves another
opportunity in camp. Unfortunately, neither Jordan Norwood nor Massaquoi could
stay healthy last season, and Massaquoi has played his last down in a Browns
uniform. A sad end to what was once a promising stint in Cleveland.
Tight End. Both Watson and Smith were aging veterans and
Jordan has not materialized into an NFL tight end. With Gronkowski and Smelley
as TE/FB projects at best right now, TE is a real weak spot Cleveland needed to
address before gambling on a draft pick. With the signings of Davis and
Barnidge, Cleveland has numbers at TE now. But that franchise starting talent that
all teams are now looking for from the TE position still eludes them. Jordan
needs to improve his game. I would not be surprised to see a TE selected in the
4th or later round.
Offensive Line. With rookie Mitchell Schwartz, Cleveland
picked up what appears to be their first decent RT in many years. To go along
with all-pro LT Joe Thomas and all-pro caliber C Alex Mack, all Cleveland now
needs to do is what I’ve been barking about for two seasons…GUARDS! Jason Pinkston could be the answer, but a
life threatening blood clot in the lung last season still makes his future
uncertain. Lauvao hasn’t transitioned from college tackle to NFL guard as well
as I had thought he would. And I already thought Greco and Cousins should not
have been resigned last offseason even though Greco out-performed Lauvao. The
poor guard play contributed to a diminishing running game and too many sacks/QB
hits in the passing game. Browns needed to address this in FA and the draft.
But again Cleveland failed to land the premier OG’s that were available.
Cleveland has to take an OG early in the draft.
Defense.
Some analysts last preseason labeled the Browns defense as one of the
better units in the league. Historically, they’ve kept the team in many games
without much help from their brothers on offense. However, statistically they
turned out to be one of the worst defensive units in the league, thanks to
injuries and a poorly timed suspension. The Browns actually have some really
good players and even more promising young players, and are only a couple
pieces shy of putting together a great defense. Last season’s defensive woes
could be as much due to unaggressive scheming as it was injury or suspension.
Safety. Cleveland has a good SS in T.J. Ward if he
can stay healthy, which he has yet to do in his previous two seasons. But new
DC Ray Horton is not shy about making big changes when he believes a player
cannot withstand the physical pounding. Ward will need to stay healthy. FS has
been an issue the past couple years, and neither Eric Hagg nor Usama Young made
the cut as a starter. Young may have been able to make the move eventually, but
Tashaun Gipson showed real promise in his opportunity last last season and
probably made Young expendable. Cleveland will need improvement at safety. One
idea is to move Sheldon Brown from CB to FS. He’s doesn’t have the legs to play
outside anymore, but has the experience to take the correct angles and play in space.
Cornerback. I really thought Buster Skrine had the
athletic ability and blue collar mentality to be a good cornerback in the NFL, but his head is all over the
place. One game he plays very well, and the next he implodes spectacularly in a
manner only a Browns fan could appreciate. Perhaps he only needs time and
experience, but this last season showed some serious faults in his game.
Cleveland can effectively cut the field in half when Haden is out there, but
opposing QBs still have their way with the other corner. Cleveland has been
using trades and late draft picks to fill this hole for several seasons, and it
hasn’t worked. Sheldon Brown hasn’t been the player he once was for a few
seasons now, and Dmitri Patterson couldn’t stay healthy. The signing of Kevin
Barnes and Chris Owens provides depth, but neither have been regular starters in their first few seasons. This position must be upgraded significantly. This
is an early draft priority.
Linebacker. Many would like Cleveland to spend
an early draft pick on a beast OLB/pass rusher. I wouldn’t scoff if they
drafted Oregon DE/LB Dion Jordan. I’d even agree somewhat with the physically
impressive but raw Ziggy Ansah of BYU. But with the signing of ex-Raven DE/OLB Paul
Kruger, it’s less of a priority and gives Cleveland options with the 6th
pick. Besides, a #6 is generally expected to be a day-1 starter, so if they
were to pick an OLB, then you can expect to see Jabaal Sheard traded that same
day. I don’t think they would have him split time at OLB, and they probably
have concerns with him playing there anyways. Plus, he doesn’t have the
quickness to accommodate added weight to be a 3-4 defensive end. Still,
Cleveland has a bevy of good, young linebackers who showed improvement. MLB
Jackson has been healthy two seasons in a row and is still one of the finest
MLBs, and OLB Craig Robertson really came alive last season. Rookies L.J. Fort and Tank Carder improved
immensely as the season progressed, and James Michael-Johnson looked better
than his rookie counterparts at times, but fought the injury bug all season. Even with fellow rookie and project linebacker
Emanuele Acho on IR last season, the signing of ex-Cardinal Quentin Groves
provides additional depth that makes one or more of the younger linebackers
expendable. Now that they’re going back
to a 3-4 base, they’ll need to find that project ILB late in the draft.
Acho traded to Philadelphia for RB Dion Lewis.
Acho traded to Philadelphia for RB Dion Lewis.
Defensive End. Cleveland may have that stud pass rusher after
all. Jabaal Sheard was relatively quiet last season until the final five games,
although not ineffective as he ended with seven sacks and a forced fumble. It’s
expected he’ll move to OLB in the new 3-4 scheme, and you should expect
improvement on his stats considering the upgrades to Cleveland’s defensive
interior line. But if the Browns fall in love with a DE/OLB at the #6 position,
then Sheard will be expendable. With the signing of Kruger, there will be more
one-on-one opportunities on the outside to pressure the QB for whoever is
playing on the other side. Frostee Rucker was a reach and not deserving of his
contract, and was rightfully released. Juqua
Parker, whose performance I personally liked, outplayed Rucker with fewer reps,
but has been in the league 12 years and is not suited as a 3-4 DE. While it is still possible the Browns will
draft or look to FA for another 3-4 DE, I expect them to move a couple of their
impressive DT’s outside.
Defensive
Tackle. Cleveland’s interior defensive
line can be set for the next several season if they continue to improve. Rubin,
Taylor, Hughes, and Winn are a great rotation, but the change to a 3-4 front
will push Taylor and Hughes or Winn outside to DE. The signing of ex-Raider
Desmond Bryant will add the depth to the position that will be lost with the
change to the new defensive scheme. Keeping those guys fresh during the game
will be vital to improving the run defense as well as forcing center/guard
double teams and allowing those one-on-one pass rush match-ups on the outside. With
teams increasingly going to more mobile/option-oriented QBs, getting outside
pressure will be vital to keeping those QBs in the pocket. DT’s do the dirty
work while DE’s and OLB’s get the highlights. All of these guys need to play with their
head up.
Special Teams.
Kicker. Last preseason I proposed Cleveland could
effectively let Phil Dawson walk and they wouldn’t miss a step. My argument,
though not well received, was that Dawson’s stats had been mediocre compared to
previous seasons and he was starting a decline. My argument was perhaps a
little unfair because Dawson’s FG % was in the low 80’s those seasons, and his
career average is 84%, which is actually very good…especially considering the
number of attempts exceeding 50 yards and the swirling wind in Browns stadium.
But what I focused on was a kicker who was making $3M a year, beginning a
downward trend statistically, and had missed a number of chip shot FGs in those
seasons. Fortunately last season, Cleveland retained what is perhaps the most
clutch kicker in the NFL. This season
they don’t have that luxury. They’ve signed one kicker, but I expect a late
round draft selection here.
Punter. This is a sorrowful position that must be
upgraded immediately. Hodges kicks routinely sailed for touchbacks, and his
yards per kick are near the bottom of the league. I can see spending a 6th
round pick on a punter this draft, but do you draft both a kicker and a punter
in the same draft? Not likely. There are still several proven punters available
in free agency. I wouldn’t be surprised to see several in camp this summer
after the draft, and perhaps even sign one before the draft.
Return
Specialist. Cleveland will be
looking to upgrade. Cribbs’ contract expired, and he didn’t really live up to
his previous contract’s expectations, and so the fan favorite is gone. Travis
Benjamin showed promise in limited opportunities, including the only return for
a TD last season for the Browns. He will likely be their #1 returner.
Top Three Current Roster Free
Agents.
The list of Browns players with expiring contracts included no less
than nine players who started at least one game last season (some as injury
substitutes), not to mention regularly contributed on offense or defense
throughout the season. That would be a lot of experience for one of the
youngest teams in the NFL to part with if they chose not to bring anyone back.
Cleveland should look to bring back the following guys for one or more seasons:
Sheldon Brown,
CB (unrestricted). Brown didn’t
exactly live up to his 3yr/$15M contract. Still, even though he missed the
final game last season with a concussion, the 33 year old showed he had
something to give with a better than average season in the stat book, including
three interceptions (with a TD return), a forced fumble, and the most tackles
since the 2007 season. But his age is obviously catching up with him as he was increasingly
beaten one-on-one as the season progressed. A move to free safety could be in
store for Brown if he returns and Cleveland can land a solid CB to start
opposite CB Joe Haden. Chances are no other team is going to jump at him in the
offseason, so a 1yr/$1.6M contract is possible.
Chris Ogbonnaya,
RB (restricted). Ironically, Brandon
Jackson probably had a better year than Ogbonnaya and I think he’s a better
compliment to Richardson’s style. But since Jackson is a UFA my guess is
Ogbonnaya will return for another season if he’s willing to agree to another
1yr/$540k contract. Even if he doesn’t, Cleveland could pick up someone with
similar skills in free agency and look to a late draft pick to fill out the
backfield. RESIGNED
Craig Robertson,
LB (restricted). The second year LB
out of North Texas was a project player last year. This past season he showed
just how good he can be and made a case for serious consideration as an every
down LB next year. He played in every game and finished with 93 tackles (2nd
on team) and two interceptions, earning himself a raise on last season’s
1yr/$390k contract. Cleveland has some really good young LB’s on the roster, and
even though all the analysts are saying Cleveland is looking for a stud OLB in
the draft, Robertson is worth resigning for three or four more seasons for $1.5M
per year. RESIGNED
Top Three Current Roster Players
with 1-Year Remaining.
This next season will tell the future for a number of players who have
either regressed or fallen short of expectations. Too many players with
exceptional physical abilities have failed to progress, and they will need to
improve or be shown the door. The following players may be in line for a
contract extension by the end of the 2013 preseason.
Alex Mack, C. Mack will be finishing up a 5yr/$12.2M rookie
contract and already has a Pro-Bowl appearance under his belt. This past season
wasn’t his best, but his durability and basic skills are sure to get him an
extension before free agency. Improvement at the OG positions will surely help
him as well.
Brad Smelley,
FB/TE. It should be a foregone
conclusion that Marecic is not the FB Cleveland needs, and in my opinion Smelley was
impressive at FB in the preseason before being signed to the practice squad as a project TE. I’m
willing to bet he makes the opening day roster as the starting FB if Cleveland
doesn’t address this in free agency or the draft. He has a nasty disposition to
hit, and improved his game and power last season.
Thaddeus Lewis,
QB. Played beyond his experience
level at Pittsburgh to end the season, but don’t fall head over heels after one
game. He’ll have a chance to show what
he can do in Chud’s offense this preseason.
Unless there is significant improvement during the 2013 season, the
following players are likely done in Cleveland : OG Shawn Lauvao, OG Oniel Cousins, OG John
Greco, LB Adrian Moten, and DE Hall Davis.
If I were General Manager…
The offensive guard play last season was downright awful, with the only
speck of light in a very dark tunnel being the possibility that Pinkston can recover
to still fill one spot reasonably well this season. There was only one cornerback
the team could depend on every week, defensive pressure on opposing quarterbacks
was inconsistent at best, and the run defense was one of the worse in the
league. The kicking game was night and day, with the kicking game being almost automatic and the punting game being horribly inept.
As I play general manager, I’m going to do what I hate most…and that is
to trade down in the 1st round because it only make the most sense to
pick up a 2nd round pick this year. Cleveland has two glaring needs in
guard and cornerback that must be addressed early. I think if Chudzinski had his way, he’d trade
down to #11 with San Diego (who are desperate for a left tackle) and pick up
WVU receiver Tavon Austin because he fits perfectly into his offense and very well
could be the #1 WR. For all I know he could also stay at #6 and pick Geno
Smith. But I don’t think Lombardi wants
to ignore the obvious priorities of the team given his history of misses and
misses in previous drafts. I
wouldn’t…not when they are only two pieces (guard and cornerback) from really
pushing their way into a fight for the top of the AFC North.
Draft trades are tricky though, because while teams use the NFL trade
scale, which assigns a point value for each draft slot, there are many instances
where a team will ignore the wide gaps in draft slot values to satisfy that one
immediate need (ahem...look at the Redskins last year). Cleveland, in my opinion,
once again holds a very powerful card in the upcoming draft. Phoenix, San
Diego, and Miami all desperately need to improve at the tackle position. With
the Cardinals sitting at #7 behind the Browns, they have no desire to move up
considering tackle is not a Cleveland need. That leaves the Chargers and
Dolphins as ideal trade partners. Stud
tackle Luke Joekel will be gone in the first couple picks, and if Eric Fischer
goes before the 6th as is expected, Cleveland has absolute control
of their own fate. With Lane Johnson as the only remaining left tackle worthy
of a reach in the first 20 picks, the Chargers and Dolphins would have to duke
it out to jump ahead of the Cardinals. Granted, the Browns won’t being pulling
draft picks from either like the Rams did to the Redskins last year for the right
to Robert Griffin III, but one of them will make the jump. In a dream scenario,
I’d do the following utilizing the NFL trade scale as evenly as possible to
give fair value to all parties involved…
1. Browns trade 2013 1st
round (#6 - 1600pts) to San Diego for 2013 1st round (#11 – 1250pts)
and 2nd round (#45 – 450pts). The Dolphins want to replace Jake Long at LT,
but the Miami Herald has reported that the Dolphins have more questions about
Oklahoma’s LT Lane Johnson than the Chargers who want to improve Philip Rivers’
blind side protection. San Diego would be willing to eat those 100 points if
they were able to jump ahead of the Cardinals, and the NFL twitter world has
been buzzing this for weeks.
2. Trade 2014 1st
round draft pick to St. Louis for 2013 1st round pick (#22 –
780pts). With St. Louis’ abundance of draft picks, thanks to their 2012 trade
with the Redskins, and that they have two 1st round picks this year,
they’ll be inclined to trade away this years late 1st round (from
Redskins) if they thought they could get a higher 1st round from
Cleveland next year. Cleveland has consistently been a top 10 draft pick since
returning to the league, so it’s a worthy gamble from the perspective of the
Rams since it is unlikely the Browns will be a playoff team this coming season like
the Redskins were last season. Plus, it would give the Rams three 1st
round picks in 2014.
Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper have been falling in the draft
lately. It’s not necessarily their fault. As free agency has played out this
year, those teams with priority interior line needs made those moves (except
for the Browns, Cowboys, and Bears), so the value of both Womack and Cooper has somewhat fallen to
the mid-late 1st round. Because
of Dallas and Chicago’s desire to upgrade all positions in their offensive lines,
Cleveland needs to trade up now.
3. Trade 2013 1st
round (#22 – 780pts), 4th round (#104 – 86pts) and 2014 5th
round draft pick to NY Giants for 1st round (#19 – 875pts). Cleveland will be eating some points
themselves with this deal, and they lose their 4th round pick this
year, but it’s worth it to get up into position ahead of Chicago. Womack and/or Cooper will be available, and
either are an upgrade over Lauvao or Greco.
If you think Cleveland would be giving up too much, look at the difference
between the current and dream scenarios and think about it again (listed below).
Current Situation Dream
Scenario
1st Rd (#6) 1st
Rd (#11) – from SD
3rd Rd (#68) 1st
Rd (#19) – from NYG
4th Rd (#104) 2nd
Rd (#45)
5th Rd (#139) 3rd
Rd (#68)
5th Rd (#164) – from SF 5th
Rd (#139)
6th Rd (#175) 5th
Rd (#164)
7th Rd (#227) – from SF 6th Rd (#175)
7th
Rd (#227)
Cleveland would not only gain back the 2nd round pick they
used in last year’s supplemental draft, but they would pick up an additional 1st
rounder. Of course, this would also bring about the realization that they wouldn’t
have a 1st round pick in the 2014 draft, which would make some
shudder if Weeden fails to deliver at QB this season. Calls for a new QB
next year would become even louder. But with an improved line, running game, more
experienced receiver corps, and offensive scheme more suited to his abilities, Weeden
should be able to fend off those calls. As the 2014 draft would sit, Cleveland
would still have their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round
picks with few if any immediate needs remaining. Perhaps depth at OL, ILB, or
DB, but every team looks to bolster their depth in those areas every year.
Cleveland’s starters would still be relatively young and set for next season. If they re-sign center Alex Mack, the only
projected starter not signed after the 2013 season, this team could be set for
some serious success in the very near future . BUT…to be more realistic and less confusing,
I’ll take the simple trade down with San Diego and leave it at that.
And with the next pick in the
draft, the Cleveland Browns select...
Following the realistic scenario above by trading down to gain a 2nd
round pick, the following are my draft picks: (alternative in italics).
1st Rd (#11) – OG Chance Warmack, Alabama (6-2, 317)
CB
Xavier Rhodes, Miami, FL (6-1, 217)
2nd Rd (#45) – CB David Amerson, NC State (6-2, 194)
OG
Larry Warford, Kentucky (6-3, 332)
3rd Rd (#68) – S Jonathan Cyprien, FIU (6-0, 217)
S
Bacarri Rambo, Georgia (6-1, 211)
4th Rd (#104) – TE Travis Kelce, Cincinnati (6-5, 255)
ILB
Kiko Alonso, Oregon (6-4, 238)
5th Rd (#139) – FB Tommy Bohanon, Wake Forest (6-1, 246)
QB
Mike Glennon, NC State (6-7, 225)
5th Rd (#164) – OG Oday Aboushi, Virginia (6-6, 308)
CB Will Davis, Utah State (5-11, 186)
6th Rd (#175) – K Dustin Hopkins, Florida State (6-2, 193)
OG Garrett Gilkey, Chadron State, D-II (6-6,
318)
7th Rd (#227) – ILB Jonathan Stewart, Texas A&M (6-4, 242)
P Jeff Locke, UCLA (6-1, 209)
1st Rd (#11) – OG Chance Warmack, Alabama (6-2, 317). As reasoned above, Warmack and Jonathan Cooper
have been falling in the draft because those teams in the top 10 of the draft
with a priority need at guard addressed those needs in free agency. Cleveland
will be licking its chops after trading down and still getting one of the best
guards to come out of the draft in a decade. Warmack is light on his feet and
is adept at meeting and eliminating linebackers at the second level. In pass
protection, he provides a nice initial punch and shows good lateral agility to
slide. Can anchor to handle powerful bull-rushers as well as well as drive
defensive tackles off the ball. His size will relegate him to guard or center
in the NFL.
Alternatives:
CB Xavier Rhodes,
Miami, FL (6-1, 217). Xavier Rhodes is a
solid 1st round pick at #11 if both Milliner and Warmack are gone
and can start immediately, but his history of nagging injuries makes him
somewhat of a risk. He’s fast and physical, knocking receivers off course at
the line of scrimmage. Rhodes is a great one-on-one tackler with a stong
plant-and-go burst to undercut routes and knock down passes. He possesses
excellent instincts and locates the ball quickly, but will need to learn
patience and mature as his aggressive nature could lead to problems with
interference and play-action fakes early on.
And here’s the kicker…
CB Dee Milliner, Alabama (6-0, 201). Because
of other teams going after priority needs and not best available, there is a
chance that Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner is still available if the Titans
bypass him and go for WR or DE/LB at #10. The only reason he is not the primary
selection here is because there is less chance he will still be available.
2nd Rd (#45) – CB David Amerson, NC State (6-2, 194). The draft stock of both Desmond Trufant
(Washington) and Jamar Taylor (Boise State) has been skyrocketing since the
Senior Bowls and they are most likely to go in the 1st round, possibly to New
England and Atlanta. And some have
Mississippi State’s Jonathan Banks rated higher, but he’s better suited for
safety in the NFL after putting on muscle. But don’t be fooled…Amerson is not the “best
of what’s left” kind of draft pick. He
fits Cleveland’s backfield well and will not have to worry about being the #1
CB in the stable with Joe Haden on the roster.
Amerson is a real student of the game with a competitive drive that has
impressed coaches and scouts as much as his rare combination of size and
quickness. He has routinely dominated #1 wideouts at the college level, and was
an All-American when setting an ACC record 13 interceptions in 2011 en route to
winning the Jack Tatum Award (nation's top defensive back) and being a finalist
for the Thorpe Award. He’s a one-time considered 1st rounder who’s
still a solid 2nd round pick, and that may actually benefit him the most. With
an inconsistent 2012 college season that could have fostered some confidence
issues, not having the added pressure of going in the 1st round and
not being the #1 cornerback in his first season in the NFL will allow him to
grow and excel in the NFL until he’s ready to take the reigns as a defensive
leader.
Alternatives:
OG Larry Warford,
Kentucky (6-3, 332). Warford is rated anywhere
from mid-40’s to late 60’s in the pre-draft rankings, so the fact so few have
heard of him is no reason to shrug it off as a reach. He possesses a short, squatty frame with
broad shoulders that makes him difficult for defensive tackles to slip past in
pass protection. He also has surprising balance and lateral agility, showing
the ability to slide in either direction. He has strong hands which he uses to
grab hold of the chest plate of the defender and pull him in close, negating
any quickness or arm-length advantage the defender might have. Shows good
awareness to handle surprise blitzes and the competitiveness to finish off
defenders he sees off-balance. He has
adequate initial quickness when getting out to pull and uses his girth and
impressive initial explosive pop to knock defenders off the ball. But he also carries too much weight around
his middle and lacks the straight-line speed to consistently get to the second
level in time to make blocks on the move. He probably needs to lose 15-20
pounds before he will be able to pull effectively and get to the second level. He
also drops his head at times which makes him vulnerable to swim moves by
quicker defensive tackles, but these faults can be improved with proper
coaching.
3rd Rd (#68) – S Jonathan Cyprien, FIU (6-0, 217). Guard and cornerback really must be the top
two priorities for the Browns, but Cyprien is a hidden gem in this draft and is
gaining some serious 1st round consideration. That I’d take him in
the 3rd may be fools paradise, but he’s my first choice at S. Cyprien
has decent size and can play either safety position. This is an added benefit
to his selection when you consider the lack of consistent starters at free
safety and T.J. Ward’s inability to stay healthy for a full season. Cyprien
demonstrates a consistent stream of aggression (hitting pop) and solid
instincts in all aspects of the game, allowing him to extend in open spaces and
get to the ball even when playing against top tier competition. He has a
tendency to attempt high tackles, and will need time to truly learn various
defensive schemes as he was mainly used in two-deep coverage in college. Don’t
be surprised if he’s taken in the 2nd round (or even 1st)
and Rambo is still available. Tashaun Gipson, however, made a strong
late-season case for consideration as the early favorite to be the Browns
starter at FS.
Alternatives:
FS Bacarri Rambo,
Georgia (6-1, 211). His past
indiscretions (two failed drug tests) are the primary reason he’s fallen to the
3rd round. Rambo possesses above average acceleration, speed and an ability to
read the QB’s eyes to get a jump on the ball. He times his leaps and contact
very well, looking to make the big hit. He has soft hands and the coordination
to make any catch in defense. More importantly, Rambo can play either safety
position. But he doesn’t consistently wrap up when tackling, and his
aggressiveness often allows backs with good vision to cut back on him.
Hidden Gem…
OLB Jamie Collins,
Southern Mississippi (6-4, 250). Here’s
hidden gem #2 of the draft for the Browns if Collins decides he wants to be a
worker. Other than the 1st round targets, Collins probably is the
most balanced OLB in pass and run defense, and should never be labeled a pass
rusher nor run stopper. He accelerates well in a straight line and exhibits
excellent flexibility, both coming off the edge as a rusher as well as when
changing direction in space. He displays a knack for getting to the quarterback
off the edge, with impressive natural power on contact. Collins has powerful
hands and long arms, aiding his ability to either disengage from blockers or
manhandle them, both which he has shown to do well. He appears comfortable and
natural in zone coverages, and flashes a strong sudden burst in space when
closing on the ball. His main default at
this point is that he's more athletic than instinctual, and he is not a
high-motor type player at this point. He does not change direction smoothly in
man coverage, and tends to tackle with the shoulder than wrapping up the ball
carrier. He will not be a day-1 starter, but an excellent depth OLB with starting
potential if he improves his instincts and momentum.
4th Rd (#104) – TE Travis Kelce, Cincinnati (6-5, 255). The Browns picked up numbers at this position during the offseason, but Kelce has the natural athleticism to become a top-tier TE in the NFL. He’s a balanced athlete with
better wheels than expected, accelerating quickly to top speed while being
deceptively quick after the catch. Has loose hips and a fluid and flexible
frame. He’s smooth and patient in his routes to release and gain separation,
works his way back to the ball and catching with his hands. Kelce has strong
hands at the point of attack as a blocker and plays with a mean streak to
eliminate defenders, showing good awareness in this area to pick up his
assignment and block anyone around him. Has a tendency to play out of control
and move too fast for his own good. His focus can be hot/cold at times, running
before securing the catch and needs to improve his blocking technique. He has
only one season as a starter, but has very good upside.
Alternatives:
ILB Kiko Alonso, Oregon
(6-4, 238). Taking an ILB after passing
on the abundance of DE/OLBs in the 1st round would probably have
some scratching their heads. But while there are a number of excellent young
linebackers on the roster with the skills to move inside, the only true MLB/ILB
on the roster right now is Jackson. He possesses rare athleticism for the
position and may be able to play outside linebacker in the NFL. He’s a highly
instinctive defender despite his relative inexperience, and gets a jump on the
ball with terrific straight-line speed, agility and burst to close. He possesses
long, strong arms to make the wrap-up tackle and flashes explosive hitting
ability. Good flexibility and balance when dropping back into coverage and has
the athleticism to handle responsibilities in man coverage. He has good
awareness in zone and possesses good hand-eye coordination and overall ball
skills. He is surprisingly stout at the line of scrimmage, using his arm length
and flexibility to get under the pads of blockers and create a pile for
teammates to close on the football. Has high effort in lateral and downfield
pursuit, and displays the versatility to be a moveable "chess piece"
for a creative defensive coordinator. Just starting to scratch the surface of
his potential. Alonso would be my first
curveball of the draft if it wasn’t for his history of injuries, but at least
their due to his reckless abandon and physical play rather than being fragile. He has also had multiple run-ins with the
law, but none since 2010.
5th Rd (#139) – FB Tommy Bohanon, Wake Forest (6-1, 246). Many have Bohanon listed as a 6th or
7th round
prospect, but they need to rethink their rankings since the combine. Bohanon is
an attractive combination of strength and speed. His 40-yard dash time was 4.81 seconds, which
isn’t bad for FB. But more impressive was the fact he bench-pressed more reps
than any other back in the combine (36 reps of 225 pounds). Bohanon impressed
coaches and scouts at the Senior Bowl and combine, and he will climb the draft
board. Cleveland needs to upgrade this position to give Richardson a lead
blocker, and Bohanon is an excellent receiver out of the backfield with
experience reaching the end zone.
Alternatives:
QB Mike Glennon,
NC State (6-7, 225). Some analysts are
pushing the Matt Scott (Arizona) button for Cleveland, but his slim build and a
lack of ideal height with a ¾ arm delivery is a downgrade. There are only about four teams really
looking for a QB in the draft to push for starter, but Glennon is a project at
best and could be taken as early as the 3rd round as some have
projected. He has ideal size and arm strength for the NFL, but needs to
continue and improve his upper and lower body technique. He displays an understanding and passion for
the game, but is still very unpolished and needs to refine his game. Glennon looked good at times at the Senior
Bowl, where he had the strongest arm among the quarterbacks in attendance, and
can deliver strikes downfield, making concise NFL throws to all levels of the
field, but he wasn’t good enough to improve his draft stock. He may be taken
earlier, but if he’s available in the 5th round, which is where he
should be taken, I’d take a flyer on him even with three quarterbacks already
on the Browns roster.
5th Rd (#164) – OG Oday Aboushi, Virginia (6-6, 308). Aboushi is a mentally tough individual with a
serious mean streak. He grew up a
Muslim-American in Brooklyn following 9/11, so it’s no wonder he has some
serious attitude and doesn’t want to take crap from anyone. He is naturally large with excellent weight
distribution and has played both tackle positions in college. He has only one
desire in the trenches…to attack, pancake, push, and destroy his opponent. He
makes a good effort getting to the second level, but relies more on size and
physicality to compensate for a lack of arm strength and pure athleticism. He’s too heavy footed to stay at tackle and
struggles with speed rushers outside, but has the rugged mentality of an NFL
guard anyways, so he should transition well to in the NFL even though he never
played guard in college. He’s a project, but has the mental make-up to see him
through until his physical tools are refined.
Alternatives:
CB Will Davis, Utah
State (5-11, 186). Davis could become
that rare late round cornerback that makes it big in the NFL. Possessing an
ideal build, Davis is an accomplished press corner with arm strength and loose hips,
having good balance and fluid change of direction in coverage. He has good
timing and leaping ability to go up against taller wideouts, and closes on the
ball quickly even with moderate speed. He’s a #2 CB at best, but uses instincts
and hands in close quarters to consistently break up passes, and has the
discipline to maintain containment against the run. His only real downgrade is
a lack of physicality. Davis is more of a finesse defender, and can get bullied
by aggressive blocking from receivers. He only started 18 games in college, so
he’ll have a significant learning curve in transitioning to the NFL.
6th Rd (#175) – K Dustin Hopkins, Florida State (6-2, 193). Even the best kickers in the draft don’t
normally go before the 6th round, and with the Browns picking early
they’ll have a good chance to nab the Florida State kicker who’s rated a 6th/7th
round pick. Hopkins has an athletic build with a consistent approach and
follow-through which results in reliable accuracy. Even misses have generally
been close, and has demonstrated a strong leg with a 55-yard game winner
against Clemson in 2010. He has a nice high trajectory on his kick and recorded
zero blocked kicks at Florida State. His only downgrade is lack of playing in
cold-weather games. But Cleveland’s last kicker was from Texas, and hadn’t
played in many cold weather games either.
Alternatives:
OG Garrett Gilkey,
Chadron State, D-II (6-6,318). Gilkey is
a project since he hasn’t faced top-tier talent in college, but impressed
during his workouts at all positions along the offensive line. Gilkey is strong
and quick on his feet for a man of his size, and demonstrated his strength,
quickness, and flexibility at the combine where he finished in the top 15 in
the bench press, three cone drill, vertical jump and broad jump.
7th Rd (#227) – ILB Jonathan Stewart, Texas A&M (6-4, 242). He’s listed as a late 6th or
early 7th round pick. If he’s still on the board Cleveland should
pick him up at #227. Heck, I’d even
accept in the 6th round if Cleveland already had their kicker in tow
just because I know every team in the AFC North are going to be upgrading their
linebacker corps’. The Browns already
have Jackson at ILB, but they will need a project ILB for depth. Besides,
Jackson’s not exactly a spring chicken anymore and even though he’s been
healthy for two seasons he does have a history of injuries. Stewart has
excellent speed (4.55 and 4.57 in 40-yd) an ILB needs to pursue the outside
run, and the game strength to plug the holes inside. He led the Aggies with 98
tackles as a junior, as was only four tackles behind highly touted fellow Aggie
Demontre Moore this past season. Cleveland
should jump on this guy.
Alternatives:
P Jeff Locke, UCLA
(6-1, 209). Locke has a booming leg and
was ranked among the nation’s leaders in net punting throughout college. Additionally impressive, he has handled
kickoffs during his career and demonstrated a very strong leg with 55
touchbacks during his time with the Bruins.
I don’t like the idea of taking both a kicker and punter in the draft,
but some guys are worth the pick regardless, and the Browns have a need for
both. The risk here is that he could be
very well be available as an undrafted free agent, and ultimately could have
been invited to camp all along.
