November 7, 2012

When I Fall Off the Fence: An Election by Any Other Name


I'm a moderate conservative...either that or I'm a conservative Democrat. It's really hard to differentiate the two nowadays since we seem to have become a nation of political extremism. I don't know if Obama or Romney would be better over the next four years. There's been a lot I've disagreed with over the last 4 years. I've certainly disliked some of the bailouts of entities who shall remain nameless (initials are AIG). It kinda reminds me of the wasted bailouts Reagan gave during the S&L failures of the 1980's. But even I know that Bush 2.0 saw the warning signs beginning in 2006 and he didn't really try to insulate our nation (more to follow). We didn't have a domestic policy for his eight years. We as not only a nation but internationally almost reached the same level of economic bust as the great depression and even that took 12 years to rebound and numerous government-backed programs to just start the process of getting people back to work. It took nearly six years to get out of the mini-recession we experienced in the late 80's - early 90's. I don't like increasing the debt anymore than anyone else and question a lot of the spending, but I find it incredibly naive of people to expect an immediate turnaround after only four years given what we as a nation faced in January of 2009. Perhaps we could blame the digital age for our impatience. We are a culture of instant messaging, immediate access to global news and information, drive-thru service and overnight delivery. Have we simply lost the will to be patient for effective change and are content with gestures and illusions? Times may change, but it doesn't speed up.
I normally try to stay away from political discussions in general for three reasons. First, I’m a military officer, and the majority of the military leadership are STAUNCH, inflexible conservatives. And anytime you get that much agreement and solidarity in any single place, common sense and reason tend to leave town. Second, political discussions are often similar to religious ones in that many people understandably have an emotional connection to the message. I normally sit back and listen and try to understand their point of view even if I occasionally disagree. And finally, as a member of the military it is my personal belief that my oath to support and defend the Constitution and the "office" of the President of the United States precludes me from making any emotional connection to the official sitting in the oval office. As such, I normally have not voted in the Presidential elections until this past one. Not many in uniform agree with my stance, in fact, not many people do in general and that is fine with me. After all, it is my personal belief. Besides, we should all know by now that a President's success or failure is mainly attributed to the actions of Congress and the ability of all members of government to communicate effectively among themselves and with society. I don't think it's woefully inaccurate to compare the POTUS to any head of industry or organization. They too are only as strong and successful as the people who serve around them.
     I have certain liberal beliefs though I am a moderate. Call me by any name you wish. With discontent you may even call me a fence sitter. But I truly believe in the freedoms afforded in the Constitution and I believe the Constitution is a living document and must evolve with society. I'll try to explain why I am a political fence-sitter, and why I simply cannot understand how anyone can solely blame the current administration for the ills of today's society even though I share a number of "conservative" philosophies with how the government should operate and have disagreed with a number of the current administration's actions.

Role of Government.
     I lean right when it comes to the role of our government. That's not to say that the federal government should not have some of the watchdog duties it currently possesses. I fully support the 2nd Amendment, but I also agree with the need for gun control provisions. I just don't believe what we currently have in place is effective. But even with technological advances shrinking the "global" view of our world, this nation has simply become too large and too complex for it to be ruled effectively from one centralized body. If anyone argues that our representative legislators have not become disconnected from their own constituents, they haven't been paying attention the past 12 years or so. And if this sounds incredibly similar to state's rights, it is.
     First off, I believe we need to reduce the number of departments and look at consolidating certain independent federal agencies and offices. There are 15 federal departments and no less than 56 independent federal establishments and corporations completely outside the purview of any department, such as the CIA, Federal Trade Commission, and Federal Communications Commission.  Some independents are right to be on their own due to the nature of their mission or tasking. But when you look at the primary mission of others, you begin to understand that much of what is focused on could be done with a minimally manned executive council, or having certain independent agencies collapse into a single body and/or under a federal department. The savings from reduced federal pay and operational requirements would be more significant than most realize. Look for yourself in the manning and operations appropriations in the federal budgets for 2011 and 2012.
     For example, consider the U.S. Department of Education (ED). Budgetary services, education and policy development, and federal student aid are extremely important to ensure the states are not only providing quality education to our children nationally, but that they are also receiving the necessary levels of federal guidance and financial assistance. But can we really justify a whole arm of the ED to focus on Civil Rights (specifically Title IX violations) when we already have the (independent office) U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, as well as numerous federal laws and titles that directly impact policy and funding to enforce equal opportunity in our schools? 
     The departments that must obviously have federal control include: Defense, State, Treasury, Justice, Interior, Labor, Energy, Veteran's Affairs, and Commerce. These departments have responsibilities that are inherently international in practice and/or cross states' borders with indifference. The Department of Homeland Security, our newest department born in haste during the Bush administration as a result of the terrorist attacks of September 11, should be disbanded and have those responsibilities and agencies returned to their previous stakeholders. The DHS was a knee-jerk reaction and ill-conceived, and has done nothing but increase red-tape and infighting within the federal government.
     The remaining departments should be disestablished and reformed as smaller executive councils with minimal manning and operational requirements to necessitate budgetary services and formulate federal policy only: Agriculture, Health &Human Services, Housing & Urban Development, Education, and Transportation. One simple reason, but not the only, for their disestablishment is that every state has already established their own state government departments to address these aspects of society. And shouldn't the states be able to address their own issues independently with as little federal interference as necessary? After all, California has a greater percentage of Hispanic students than Maine or North Dakota. Should the federal government mandate that each state be required to devote the same percentage of federally augmented funding based on racial or ethnic divisions when the states do not share that division? It has been argued on the floors of Congress. The states are more apt to address those needs individually.
     Additionally, congressmen should have a significant reduction in pay, a reduction in the authorized number of staff members, and should not have a lifetime pension plan simply because they served a term in congress. If anything, any pension plan should be adjusted based on years in service, much like the military or any other government employee. Our congresspersons have taken advantage of their positions without any significant voice from the people. This is a shame. In fact, any increase in a politicians pay should be determined by the vote of the people that they represent.
     And this brings us to states’ rights. I believe states should be able to determine for themselves many aspects of daily life. The legalization of drugs (not including medications that would normally undergo FDA compliance), same-sex marriage, and even universal health care. If you recall, it wasn't that long ago that California legalized medicinal marijuana only to have the U.S. Attorney General state they couldn't and would prosecute violators of federal drug laws. And if states want some form of public health care, shouldn't that be their individual right to pursue based on their citizens' desires?

Taxes.
     I lean more to the left when it comes to taxes. I do not believe in tax relief or scalable rates for any socioeconomic class. What I believe in is a fixed income tax rate across the board, and here is why.
     The federal tax code for 2012 was much larger than I realized...try 73,608 pages large. And although it is reported that the wealthier a household's income is the higher the federal tax rate, reality couldn't be farther from the truth. Within those 73,000+ pages are numerous allowances and appendices that permit certain income to be maneuvered in ways that prevent them from being taxed. Problem is most people are either economically incapable to take advantage of or are simply unaware. These people simply do not earn the high annual income that would enable them to take advantage of those loopholes. Most of these loops holes that exist do so in a manner that only households that earn in excess of $1M annually can take advantage of them. That is why middle america is paying in the neighborhood of 40% of their income in taxes while the upper 1% of society are only paying 12% to 16% regardless of the scaled rates on the books. These loopholes should be expelled from the tax code. And let us not kid ourselves...telling middle America they can transfer income to non-taxed IRAs or mutual funds only delays the inevitable and further reduces their immediate discretionary spending power. It's not the same.



     I am not anti-big business either. Strong corporate structures are not the antithesis to small businesses. But I find it somewhat ironic that over 40% of the federal governments income comes from income tax, while only about 10% comes from corporate/business tax (tax on profits and assets) when this nation has such a high GDP. And this is where the real disappointment lies, because you then read how corporate dynamo's like Westgate Resorts' Seigel telling his employees that he provides all the jobs and then pays all the taxes. It simply is not true. In fact, for those who state Democrats are anti-big business and taxes only the wealthy, keep in mind that in the last year of Bush's presidency (2008), corporate taxes comprised 12% of the federal government's income compared to only 9% in 2010 under Obama. And under Bush, income taxes comprised 45% compared to 42% under Obama.

Economy.
     I've heard a large number of people asking if the nation is in a better place now than it was four years ago. The answer is no... but the prognosis really is better than it was four years ago when you look at the "individual market trends" and not just the bottom line figures. For example, neither I nor my wife make excessively high salary's or come close to higher tax brackets. And if you were to look at my bottom line it would show that I'm over $270,000 in debt. That's less than appetizing. But the trend shows that in the past four years, I've not only been able to pay down my home mortgage, but I've also paid off loans on my 2009 truck and 2010 motorcycle ahead of schedule. At the same time, I've been able to invest over $30,000 in home improvements while saving over $100,000 from my salary for personal investments...and that doesn't include any joint accounts shared with my wife. It just depends on how you determine progress, and if you are a bottom-line type person then you will never be able to say you are satisfied. You'll hear people say you need to run the government like a business. There are many aspects in which business practices are applicable and even essential, but you can't cut away segments of a nation because it is under-performing expectations, nor can we sell States like some old building simply because it costs more to operate than earn. Instead, nations need to be ran like a household, with strict budget guidelines. It's not as if households go out and print up more money just because it doesn't have enough at the moment. If Congress can get over its bickering and start working for the American people again, this nation will get stronger. 
     What I find so incredulous in some is the lack of real hindsight when we blame the Obama administration for all the woes of today's society. We tend to forget things rather quickly in society, and many people may not truly appreciate just how badly the U.S. and global economies were hit in 2009. The Bush administration dealt early and often with significant national disasters. First were the worst floods on record in the northern Mississippi River regions, followed by the events surrounding 9/11 and then Hurricane Katrina. And while we were focused on two wars and increasing international developments, have we as a nation truly forgotten that one of the few domestic activities during the Bush administration that had any real push was a platform against same-sex marriage?  I don't understand how so many smart people can solely blame the current administration for actions that began many years prior, and ignore the fact that so little was attempted, let alone accomplished, regarding the domestic health of our nation. And lets not shed blame from a body of government that has purposely refused to work together, starting in earnest in 2005. It's not just one party's "take it or leave it" attitude. Both need to share the blame.
     Have we forgotten that the average price for a gallon of gasoline jumped 243% from 2002 to 2008 ($1.43 to $3.26)? In the three years following Obama's election, the average gallon of gasoline only rose an additional $.27, to $3.53 a gallon in 2011, and actually fell in 2009 for the first time in over a decade. And while I'm not happy about paying that much for gasoline to begin with, the fact that it has nearly kept pace with inflation was at least more promising than the previous administration's work (in the section on environment and global warming I'll discuss the necessity to open our oil fields on the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts). Yet this was on the RNC's list of topics to criticize during the campaign. And yet here we are, having increased our domestic production to the point that we will likely become the leading producer of oil and natural gas within the next 15 years, further reducing our need for foreign oil. 
     Have we forgotten that the housing bubble began unabated in 2001, and continued to grow without federal adjustments until it burst in 2006? Foreclosures skyrocketed and average home prices then continued to fall until they were finally stabilized in 2009. And while the housing market is just now beginning to rebound, the fact is that this whole mess started a long time ago when there was a serious lack of financial oversight to monitor for the improper lending practices between the primary and secondary mortgage markets that were ultimately responsible for the housing boom and subsequent fall. In essence, many of these secondary markets were orchestrating what I would consider a housing ponzi scheme, except they used real mortgages with lien holders who had no realistic means to repay those mortgages as they were designed. They packaged and sold on the market these pieces that had no real value...but still had "market value". This is the blurred line between what's legal and what's unethical.
     And have we forgotten that the global financial crisis began in July of 2007 with significant spikes in the credit risk ratings throughout the world, especially noted in the difference between the US debt rates and the Eurodollar futures? The crisis then wavered at this elevated level for over a year without any action from the Bush administration, until it exploded in late 2008 with the greatest differences to date just prior to the Obama inauguration in January 2009.
     The national debt is out of control. There's no way to avoid that realization and no reason why anyone should. It rose by $5T during Bush's term in office, and has continued to skyrocket by another $5T during Obama's first four years. I was never in favor of most of the government bailout plans (though the auto industry was a sound investment). Ideologically, the bailouts were very similar in philosophy to the New Deal policy under Roosevelt. But unlike the New Deal, it wasn't focused on specific projects nor did it target a measurable outcome. It was another all-to-common political faux pas where we threw good money after bad in the belief that if you spend enough it will eventually work. The simple fact of the bailouts/stimulus plan was that these projects had to be financed from somewhere, and it was done so by increasing the national debt which only worsens the dollars future. Unlike private investments, public investments by the government don't have to meet the smell test...that is, they don't have to produce more than they cost to continue. This is unfortunately the result of the bailout and stimulus plans that the Obama administration put in place. A really good article discussing this can be found at http://www.dimensional.com/famafrench/ 2009/01/bailouts-and-stimulus-plans.html.
     Then again, something was done, right or wrong, which was more than what was done when these problems were becoming visible prior to 2009. As much as I disagreed with the bailouts of AIG, Fanny Mae/Freddy Mac, etc., we can’t forget that this has been a practice of both Republican and Democtratic leaders in our past, most recently from Reagan/Bush in the late 80's - early 90's as a result of the mini-recession we experienced. And it took several years to rebound from that, with the 2009 economic collapse being vastly greater in reach and impact.
     If there is any positive outlook, it would come from the unbiased website PresidentialDebt.org that monitors the national GDP and spending. Since Obama took office, the debt has obviously continued to rise, but the debt trend has actually improved each of the past three years...our rate of increased debt is shrinking... whereas the trend worsened in five of Bush's eight years in office, including the greatest downward trend in his last year in office (2008), a sure sign of the worsening economy. And the U.S. was still fighting a very costly war against terrorism AND stabilizing a devastated domestic economy. To the very least, it provided a stable platform in which we can now focus on correcting the current spending practices of the government, increase jobs and reduce the debt, although with much disagreement within Congress on how to proceed.
     The simple fact is this...the problems we face today were put into motion well before the current administration took office. If you want to criticize anyone’s plan for the future, feel free. If you want to criticize Obama’s ideas during the past term, please do so. It’s not only your right, but your obligation as a citizen. But don't point your fingers at the current administration and state they are to blame for where you are today. It takes a hell of a lot longer to clean up a mess than it does to create one. I find fault in many of Obama's activities, but I'm not blinded by my or any one person’s political views or party affiliation from acknowledging the truth about the recent past.

Same Sex Marriage.
     Unfortunately, I at first questioned the wisdom in abolishing the Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT) policy in the military. It's not because I'm a homophobe or bigot, but because I actually worried if an openly homosexual member of the military would truly receive the same fair opportunity to progress in their career. I initially believed it would probably be better for the military as a whole to continue the DADT policy until the younger generations had achieved the higher levels of rank and authority to ensure full acceptance of open homosexuality throughout the ranks. I wondered with doubt if the historically conservative military leadership would be able to evolve and wholly accept an immediate change in policy, even though we all knew homosexuals actively served. It was very much an aspect of pretending to not see the elephant in the room because it didn't make a noise. Rather ridiculous in my opinion, but true nonetheless. The truth is, the majority of the junior officers and enlisted couldn't have cared one way or the other about the sexual orientation of the member beside them. It was primarily viewed as just an aspect of today's society.
     But the professional advancement  in the military is primarily dependent on the "opinion" of superiors. Only the enlisted personnel have standardized advancement exams, and that serves to identify the top candidates eligible for promotion. Otherwise, there are nearly no standardized practices that impacts a persons military career, especially officers. In fact, all promotion and special career advancement boards (officers and enlisted) are generally based on the professional evaluations given by a member's superior. Likewise, officers are subjected to oral boards to attain professional / watchstanding qualifications which they must achieve in order to proceed with their careers. Yet, the questions that can be asked at these boards are also not standardized...they are at the discretion of the commanding officer and his or her panel members. Without this standardization, how could a member claim any one oral board was substantially unfair and impossibly difficult compared to that of another officer? There is no recording of the questions asked to gauge that officer's professional knowledge. How could an openly homosexual junior officer be protected against a panel influenced by their personal beliefs or biases during an oral board? This is what concerned me, and I feared such instances should they occur would harm the integrity of the service.
      BUT...  I find it incredibly offensive that we as a nation of the free can tell any segment of our population that they cannot share in the same freedoms or opportunity that any other segment enjoys. We know that change must and always will occur. Every generation ultimately determines for itself what is socially acceptable. I don't believe we could ask homosexuals in the military to pretend to be something they are not for 20 or 30 years until they are at the top of the ladder, so to speak, and held those high seats of power and authority to then enact what rightfully should be today, just because it was easier or potentially less embarrassing should there be instances of discrimination.
     Historically, mandated change has been turbulent and slow to acceptance. A full century had passed since the abolition of slavery, and even with federally mandated civil rights throughout those decades, the segregation and discrimination of African-Americans continued. It took another 50 years to vote the first African-American to the office of POTUS. This historical precedent worried me when it came to DADT, but I had no right to ask homosexuals to not fight for what they believed in and what I believed was just. Not if I truly believed in what I swore an oath to defend.
     And so it goes...I fell in love and married the woman of my dreams. It was a perfect wedding. I could not have asked for a more perfect week in the Grand Cayman Islands. So how can I, a person who supports and defends the freedoms of this land, deny two consenting adults from enjoying the same life experiences?  How can we purport to separate church and state and then quote religious text to reinforce the state's position to deny the very same? We do not live in a theocratic society. We should not claim to be a more advanced civilization than Iran, Iraq, or any other nation where active segregation of the population systematically practices discrimination based on religious beliefs.  If we allow religious beliefs to rule over law, then how have we evolved? How has the current self-proclaimed "moral majority" protected itself from the same discriminatory practices if in the future their beliefs are questioned or even banned by a new order of thinking?
     And how would same-sex marriage affect anyone? If you are someone who is opposed, how are you affected in any respects? I believe people who say they don't understand alternative lifestyles actually mean they can't imagine being in a same-sex relationship, and it's fair to make that statement. I can't imagine being in a same-sex relationship because it's not my lifestyle. But to claim one does not understand an alternative lifestyle is to state one does not understand devotion and love for another person greater than himself or herself. Anyone who has ever fallen in love, whether it is with your spouse, partner, or even your family, understands that all too well.

Abortion.
     I do not support abortion, but I am a proponent of the freedom of choice over a person’s body. As a means of birth control, abortion is incredibly offensive. My heart tells me there should be no difference between first term and third term abortions. But I also cannot divorce myself emotionally from the turmoil in the known medical scenarios that would require an aborted pregnancy to preserve the life of my wife. My mind tells me anytime a fetus is far enough along in the pregnancy to possibly survive a premature birth it should be given that chance to live. On the other hand, heaven help me and any person who tells my wife, or perhaps one day a daughter, that she would have to carry to term any fetus that resulted from a sexual assault or would in fact endanger their lives.
     If I seem to flip-flop on this subject, it's because I obviously do. I don't have an answer specifically toward abortion. But for me this debate is not a simple matter of Roe v. Wade (not that that is simple).  I do not want the government telling me what I can or cannot do with my body. It's the larger precedent that is set when the government legislates decisions regarding one's decision with their physical body. And this legal precedent has been extended to argue other debatable topics such as assisted suicide, experimental medical treatments for terminal illnesses, and the like. I should be permitted to seek any medical option to extend my life whether or not the federal government approves. Or even end it if I choose not to have my family suffer with me during an extended terminal illness. And as such I have to afford the same liberal perspective toward abortion, whether or not I agree with it.

Immigration.
     I lean to the right concerning immigration, which would probably irk my mother-in-law who came to the United States from Spain in the mid-1970's, albeit legally, without being able to speak a lick of English. I don't understand why some liberals are so opposed to the premise that if you are in the country illegally, you should be deported and forced to follow the legally mandated criteria to enter this land.
     I also don't understand why some liberals want to support undocumented members in society with public resources. For example, in Virginia there was a bill proposed to provide state public assistance to undocumented persons. That means using tax dollars of legal citizens to provide family assistance benefits to illegal aliens who don’t pay taxes. I simply don't get it. If they're undocumented, why are they still here?
     That's not to say that there haven't been some liberal immigration reform that I thought had some interesting philosophies and were somewhat reasonable. Originally introduced in 2001 and defeated, the DREAM Act (Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors) was recently revamped by Obama as an executive order which allowed temporary residency status to children of undocumented parents if the children had met certain criteria, such as no criminal record, lived in U.S. for five years, and so on. This temporary residency status would then allow a specific period for the children of undocumented parents to achieve naturalized citizenship status through the legally mandated process.  But Obama's actions in pushing immigration reform through an executive order was incredibly dubious and offensive to government processes. Just as the conservatives attempt to take matters into their own hands by supporting Arizona's efforts to engage in federal immigration law at the state level was offensive. While I'm all for states’ rights, there are certain topics that should be directed at the federal level, and immigration policy is one. President Obama's order should be rescinded and resubmitted to Congress for committee and vote. Being POTUS shouldn't allow you to sidestep the law, which in my opinion is what his order is doing presently.

Gun Control.
     When it comes to weapons, I am right down the center. I believe the 2nd Amendment remains valid to this very day and was not meant to be solely applicable to the colony or state militias of our past as some have interpreted. Being that, I simply cannot understand how anyone can be completely opposed to gun control measures. Many I have talked to believe that "gun control" simply refers to the governments attempt to limit the availability of guns to lawful citizens. This may be true to a certain extent. But for those persons who haven't truly pondered the values of this nation...those who spout "land of the free" while failing to accurately perceive those freedoms...then consider this; have we not always had "regulated freedoms" since the birth of our nation over 200 years ago? 
     Gun control should not be about taking away freedoms, but simply regulating them. It is not an unreasonable concept when we (the people) also demand governmental controls on all aspects of life. Food processing plants have to adhere to certain health and safety measures to reduce the chance of poisoning the population through contaminated meats and produce. Medications must undergo a lengthy and exhaustive testing process in an effort to reduce the chance that a medication meant to heal doesn't ultimately harm our health and well-being. Hell, the constitution grants us the right to vote, but we regulate voting practices to ensure our voice in the way we are governed is not to be molested. And we prosecute those who try to violate these regulations for their own "personal" gain. 
     And that is the key to "regulated freedoms" of this nation. We regulate freedoms by passing laws that are meant to benefit the nation as a whole, not the individual. Not the person. So how does regulating weapons differ? 
     The genius of our ancestors was their forethought enabling the Constitution to always change as society evolves. But just because the Constitution can change isn't the primary reason for why it should. So lets look at what federal "gun control" has typically aimed at confronting over the last 80 years. It has set up a system for taxing the sale of weapons, required the licensing of traders and wholesalers, placed age restrictions on the purchase of weapons, and has restricted the lawful possession of weapons by those who have been convicted/indicted of certain violent crimes. It has attempted to reduce the magazine capacity of guns, and regulated the registration of weapons with state law enforcement agencies. It has attempted to limit or ban the possession of weapons in public schools or areas where children gather (school grounds and parks). And it has limited the availability of automatic weapons.
     Of course, there have also been instances in which efforts by the federal government have been nothing more than propaganda, such as the now defunct law banning the possession/sale of "assault weapons", which are nothing more than semi-automatic weapons that have the cosmetic appearance of fully automatic assault rifles. And while I personally have no interest in possessing assault weapons, I think it is safe to say that measures such as this provide no real benefit to society. 
     But Americans continue to make the argument that gun control only inhibits law-abiding citizens because criminals don't follow those same measures. This is undeniably true. But should we stop registering and inspecting vehicles because the local bank robbers use stolen cars as a getaway? Should we rid ourselves of legal driving ages simply because persons who've lost their driving privileges will continue to operate motor vehicles? Should we do away with illegal drugs such as heroin or methamphetamine just because there are those who are still willing to produce, sell, or use them? Or should we allow abusive spouses or members of society with a history of violence to possess weapons? 
     If I wanted to be glib I'd ask if homeowners really need a full, 30-round banana clip to protect their homes? When is the last time someone actually had their home broken into by 30 people? Or even five? I don't know about anyone else, but after years of being around gunfire I can certainly tell you that an unexpected gunshot in the still of the night still shocks the hell out of me. I have a hard time believing that a couple pulls on the trigger from a handgun won't scare the hell out of any number of home intruders. 
     The National Rifle Association (NRA) has stated that persons only need to be properly trained in firearm safety. I would agree with that. Firearm safety would go a long way to reducing accidental discharges and certainly educate persons of all ages to properly respect the definitive consequences of using a firearm. Should we make that a law, i.e. a regulation, or should we leave it up to the honesty of our neighbors and, dare I say, complete strangers? 
     We have all regulated freedoms within our own lives. And if you think we don't, then ask yourself this: Have you ever punished your children? Were you ever punished for breaking the rules as a kid yourself? Regulation has always existed, and it does for simple and reasonable purposes.
     And then there is the all-too-ridiculous saying, "guns don't kill people, people kill people."  I'm sorry to disappoint those people, but guns kill. That is what they are designed to do, plain and simple. And they make it more effective and efficient. Yes, sometimes it is the intent of the person that makes weapons lethal. Certainly intent is behind most if not all of our nation's tragedies involving weapons. But how many stories have there also been of little Johnny finding the keys to the gun cabinet and showing his daddy's gun to his friends, only for it to go off accidentally and injure or kill someone? How many times has someone accidentally killed himself/herself cleaning a weapon they thought was unloaded? Even trained military personnel have inadvertent discharges. The fact is this...intent is not always a precursor to a lethal event...but violence is, and guns are inherently violent. So please stop promoting this ridiculous slogan. 
     It may sound "un-American" to say that too much freedom is a bad thing, but it is. I sometimes have a hard time believing I actually agree with statement given I've spent a good portion of my life defending this nations freedoms. But I do. Rights and regulation is a system of checks and balances, where without one or the other we fall to either side of the spectrum between anarchy and tyranny. Regulation is not only required, it can be reasonably applied. Personally, I think we've reached that balance between tyranny and anarchy on this issue. I don't believe any additional measure is necessary other than perhaps to mandate firearm safety courses for persons wishing to purchase or use firearms. 
     The only thing standing in the way of reasonable gun control regulation are "all-or-nothing" individuals who fail to be reasonable themselves?

Health Care.
     For me, this has been the most ridiculous platform that has received so much attention and political maneuvering. Not ridiculous in that it's not important, but ridiculous in that neither side has it right.  I don't believe this is privatization vs. socialism, nor is it a matter of the working having to pay for the so-called "lazy" as has been referred to by some out there. The real problem doesn't lie with the federal government mandating publicly funded insurance, which as you already know I believe is a matter for the states to determine for themselves. In fact, if anything, the federal government should be more focused on curving the ever increasing cost of medical care in general and not shifting it to the taxpayers to cover. Prices in a hospital are almost as bad as prices for federal government acquisitions ($20 for an aspirin is the same as $700 for a hammer analogy...the figures are overstated, but the gross overpayment for simple items is not). And if you think that's bunk, consider the fact that a wrench for use on a satellite cost NASA tens of thousands to procure. I bet you regardless of the material used and whatever research was conducted by the contractor to produce the item to withstand an interstellar environment, I could get a crescent wrench from Lowe's Hardware to do the same job. But back to the issue at hand...
     The real problem is how the federal government addresses healthcare in general. Billions in federally funded research grants are provided to private institutions and pharmaceutical companies (pharm's) to investigate treatments for just about every type of disease imaginable. The problem with this is that pharm's don't make money from vaccines that cure diseases. They make their money from patenting medications to treat the symptoms. In fact, if you think about it briefly, it's actually bad business for pharm's to research for a cure. They would then be working to reduce their number of repeat customers in the market. Seriously, any futures market advisor you talk with will tell you to include at least one pharmaceutical company in your portfolio. There's a reason for it...they will always have customers as long as there are sick people.
     This is one of the few areas where I'd actually like to see the federal government increase its activity by enhancing the number of federal research grants and facilities whose sole purpose is to research cures for diseases. Pharm's already have the motivation to research treatments. The government should focus on cures and reallocate research grants currently going to pharm's to futher enhance this effort. As it currently stands, numerous non-profit organizations rely primarily on private funding (a.k.a. your donations) to research cures with federal assistance making up a small fraction, such as the American Heart Association, American Cancer Society, Muscular Dystrophy Association, and the Susan G. Komen foundation. 
     Many people state that without federally funded grants the pharm's would boost the cost of medications to cover their profit margins and satisfy investor expectations. But that would not be the case if congress would work together to legislate a maximum price index for medications to prevent such price gouging. I know too many retirees who are getting their medication via the internet from Canadian companies simply because the cost to too high domestically.

Environment and Global Warming.
     I admit it...I'm a tree hugger. I oppose drilling in the arctic because I love the cute and fuzzy wildlife. I like going green and the idea of investing in renewable energy. I like ice caps and glaciers. And while I believe global warming to be a natural occurrence as history indicates, we have also exacerbated it's effects and the immediacy in which it is returning. We have an obligation to ourselves to do all we can to reduce our ecological footprint. But I also know that a large step in "going green" will be too costly until the infrastructure and private consumers are ready to receive. What I mean is, unless more people are in a position to use, lets say, hydrogen fueled hover crafts (to be flip), then the cost to produce in such a low demand market will be too expensive for anyone to participate. As I've said before, change must and always will occur, but immediate change is often painful. We don't need to do a complete 180 degree turn right this second as long as we are making honest efforts to seek better, cleaner, healthier, and more efficient energy sources. If we're not making an honest effort, then it will be too late sooner than we like.
     I believe President Bush truly cared about the American people, he just didn't consider various angles and alternatives or beyond the near-term impacts. I also think he surrounded himself with individuals who cared more about lining back pockets than anything else. And this, in my opinion, is demonstrated quite nicely in the oil industry. One thing President Bush did during his administration was address the increasing gas prices in 2004 by pushing through a tax break to the oil companies that was intended to offset the industry's costs of providing this much needed resource. This in turn was meant to be reflected at the pump with lowered gas prices for consumers. Unfortunately that never happened.
     The 2004 corporate tax relief provisions for the oil companies targeted the industry's recovery of expensive manufacturing, drilling, and exploration costs. As a result, one independent research center states that the federal tax rate for oil companies from 2004 to 2010 was less than half of the average 35% standard rate for all other U.S. companies. As the price of gasoline continued to rise and oil giants such as Exxon and Shell booked record setting quarterly profits in the billions, much to the angst of the public, the companies countered with the argument that they were only making $.02 cents profit for every gallon produced while the government was applying excessive taxes at the pump. They further blamed the consumers for excessive fuel usage, driving up the demand with limited supply that resulted in higher prices. The reality was that the federal and state governments were collecting a combined $.60 a gallon while approximately $.02 was going to the wholesaler (gas station). If the companies were claiming an additional $.02 in profit, then where was the rest going? It was going to the oil companies. They claimed $.02 profit because the rest was on the books as costs for...you guessed it...drilling and production, transportation, and exploration. So they reaped the benefits of the tax relief without falsely claiming the costs that permitted the incredible profit growth because the tax relief was an aftermarket addition. In other words, prices didn't come down and they kept their inflated profits thanks to the tax relief. Bush's idea was sound but the plan was flawed.
     So while I fully support reasonable investments in exploring alternative fuel sources, we also need to take advantage of known oil and natural gas deposits, primarily sitting off our coasts, to further reduce our dependence on foreign oil. There has been a lot of debate since the Deepwater Horizon incident that this step only further invites disaster on our shores. The truth is, while this event was an obvious tragedy, it greatly overshadowed the country's favorable track record in safe oil and gas extraction compared to other regions around the world. In the last 50 years, accidents in shipping have been the cause of most spillage incidents in the world. In fact, outside of shipping-related spillage, only two spills of any significant size in the U.S. occurred as a result of weather (Hurricane Katrina in 2005 & CITGO Refinery in 2006) and only one incident at sea at an oil well failure in the Gulf of Mexico in 1979 that ultimately had a low environmental impact.
     In the past 20 years, the U.S. government has conducted several exploratory operations on both east and west coasts, and the results are promising. Some estimate that the available oil and natural gas deposits on or just off the continental shelves could produce as much as six times more fossil fuel than the entire middle east every year for the next 60 to 100 years, which is about how long the middle east stores are expected to last (some are hinting that China and Russia are waiting for the middle east wells to begin drying up to take advantage of the foreign market with their vast deposits that sit untapped). To harvest this resource would not only reduce our dependence on foreign oil and possibly insulate the U.S. from excessive global market flux, it would reduce domestic gas prices, inflate our reserves, and produce an incredible amount of federal income to invest in alternative and renewable energy resources which is a must for our future survival. And while I don't have the cost estimates to support my opinion, the fact that these deposits are within a couple hundred miles of the mainland should mean it would be much more cost-effective than transporting from the arctic circle.
     Ironic for some to believe, however, I'm also strongly opposed to the completion of the Keystone Pipeline connecting Canadian oilfields to several U.S. refinement facilities as it is currently planned. The main reason I oppose this project is simply because it is currently laid out to cross the Ogallala Aquifer in several locations. The Ogallala is an underground fresh water system stretching from northern Texas to southern South Dakota, with the largest concentration in Nebraska. If there was a significant oil spill at any section of the Keystone crossing the Ogallala, then it realistically could contaminate this vast underground water source with no real means to corral and defeat it. The resulting contamination would destroy a fresh water supply that supports tens of millions of Americans and over $20 billion in agriculture annually, which would devastate the mid-western U.S. economy.
     Though I want to see significant improvements in our exploration of alternative and cleaner resources, I don't believe in our economy we can't get there without the federal income generated from a steady domestic supply of reasonably priced fossil fuels in the near future.

The Military.
     As much as I hate to admit it, being a member of the military, President Clinton had it right when he slashed the defense budget to the bone in the 1990's. It forced the department to stop their practice of funding poorly conceived acquisition programs that were service-centric. This in turn, led to the development of the current acquisition practice that focuses on joint service compatibility and capability. Essentially, services were forced to work in a joint environment more effectively because they individually could no longer fund the programs and materials necessary to engage in a military campaign on their own. Furthermore, the technological advances made it possible for fewer assets to assume greater responsibilities and tasking, thus enabling the forces to be smaller in size and (presumably) expense. Opponents had it wrong when they claimed he weakened the military. His actions actually made the military as a whole more effective operationally, and wiser with their allocated budgets.
     Bush also had it right at first. He had no choice but to increase the defense budget as a result of the decision to enter into two wars. Unfortunately when you give more and more, there is a tendancy to accept greater risks because there is a financial fall back. Though I won't go into any specific details on programs I had become intimately familiar with,  I would venture to guess that increases to the defense budget led to unwisely funding a number of programs that eventually made little to no progress and were cancelled only after hundreds of millions of dollars and several years were lost, or were shelved after finally realizing that the planned numbers for acquisition would not be cost effective. 
     In my opinion, the nations defense needs (1) repriortized R&D programs, (2) streamlined acquisition processes, and (3) an increase in the quality of life of our service members. The next administration must focus on tightening the purse strings for R&D programs not already in the functional testing phases. While it's hard to put a concrete number for limited R&D, for example limiting the services and DARPA to only 10 programs each, there must be a return to frugal spending with a clear and (most important) consistent vision for the future of the military as a whole. This is a difficult task considering the technological advancements made by many nations in recent years. But we simply cannot afford financially to investigate so many programs whose functions and purpose are so closely related or provide no technological advances that would be beneficial 20 years from now. Furthering this problem is the fact so many senior military officials spend so little time, as little as 14-18 months, heading commands responsible for the development of these R&D programs. As soon as one leader’s philosophy begins to take hold, the next leader arrives with a different set of priorities or beliefs and perhaps even different priorities. 
     The military needs to refocus and streamline the acquisition process that was put into place in the 1990's. While this system installed measures to guarantee proper oversight and force the services to work together, the excessive "back and forth" that currently takes place to satisfy all stakeholders and services is quite possibly a central factor why so many major military acquisition programs take dozens of years to go from concept to deployable asset. Furthermore, anytime a civilian contractor loses on a bid to produce a major acquisition program, you can almost always expect them to file a law suit halting the acquisition in order to argue how they somehow were wronged during the process. These failures keep needed assets out of the hands of the warfighters.
     It was disheartening to hear that a number of returning Iraqi veterans in 2003 through 2005 were being injured and even electrocuted and killed in their own barracks due to eroding living conditions on U.S. bases. It was aggravating to hear our wounded warriors were being cared for at a military hospital compound with building conditions so deplorable that some of those very buildings were condemned (after the news of their situation was made public). But it wasn't really surprising because I lived for almost three years in barracks ran by two separate services. The quality of life for all service members must improve to maintain a steady and ready force. After having served in a number of positions in the military, I've learned that the two most important groups in the military are (1) the trigger-pullers on the front lines, and (2) the admin types. Yes, I said admin. The personnel who circulate directives, process orders, track pay, and are more or less entrusted with taking care of the welfare of our operational soldiers, sailors, and airmen are second only to the frontline warfighters in terms of importance...to every service member. This is the only segment of the military that actually impacts every other member of the service. Not everyone cares if the mechanics are able to get the tanks rolling or patrol craft steaming. Some aren't too concerned about a tactical display malfunctioning on a watch floor, or a daily supply transport plane not making a routine run. But I guarantee you if a person isn't receiving their base pay, if their families haven't received their housing allowance, or if they have received too much pay through an error and are now going to be without pay the following month, THEY CARE! The morale of a service member is tied directly to their quality of life and their effectiveness in carrying out their duties. Living conditions, wage scales, allowances to meet cost of living adjustments, access to college tuition assistance programs, quality medical care, and quality career pension programs are not only important to enhancing the morale of current service members, but vital to retaining those qualified and highly trained members who one day are expected to be the military's future leadership.

Foreign Policy.
in progress

Space and Exploration.
in progress

    

January 29, 2012

Browns 2012 Offseason Strategy

So, I have been doing a little online research and picked my own brain to think about the offseason for the Browns roster. First, let's look at how last year's draft picks turned out. My picks from last year are in black font (with those alternates I identified last year) while Cleveland's actual picks are in orange font.

1st Round, #6 – DT/DE
Marcell Dareus (Buf) – 32 Tk,  11 Ast,  5.5 Sks, 3 Stf,  0 FF,  1 FR
or
Robert Quinn (StL) – 19 Tk, 3, Ast, 5 Sks, 1 Stf
Alternates:
J.J. Watt (DE, Hou) – 49 Tk, 7 Ast, 5.5 Sks, 7 Stf, 0 FF, 2 FR           
Adrian Claybourne (DE, TB) – 29 Tk, 13 Ast, 7.5 Sks, 2.5 Stf, 3FF, 0 FR
Browns: Trade down for Phil Taylor (DT, Cle) – 37 Tk, 22 Ast, 4 Sks, 2 Stf, 1 FF, 0 FR
------------------
2nd Round, #37 – LB
Martez Wilson (NO) – 3 Tk, 3 Ast, 0 Sks, 0 Stf, 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 Int
Alternates:
CB, Davon House (GB) – no stats/ankle injury
WR, Torrey Smith (Bal) – 50 Rec, 841yds, 7 TDs
Browns: Jabaal Sheard (DE, Cle) – 40 Tk, 15 Ast, 8.5 Sks, 8.5 Stf, 5 FF, 1 FR
Browns: Greg Little (WR, Cle) – 61 Rec, 709 Yds, 2 TDs
---------------
3rd Round, #70 – OG
Clint Boling (Cin) – OL have no stats
Alternates:
OG, Will Rackley (Jax) – OL have no stats
Browns: Traded 
---------------
4th #102 – WR
Terrence Tolliver (Det) – no stats
Alternates:
TE, D.J. Williams (GB) – 2 Rec, 13 Yds, 0 TDs
DE, Lawrence Guy (GB) – no stats
Browns: Jordan Cameron (TE, Cle) – 6 Rec, 33 Yds, 0 TDs
Browns: Owen Marecic (FB, Cle) – 4 Rush, 8 Yds, 0 TDs
---------------
5th #137 – DT
Jarvis Jenkins (Wash) – no stats / IR
Alternates:
OLB, Ross Homan (N/A) – Released from Tampa Bay practice squad
OG, Benjamin Ijalana (Ind) – OL have no stats
Browns: Buster Skrine (CB, Cle) – 7 Tk, 2 Ast, 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 Int
Browns: Jason Pinkston (OT, Cle) – OL have no stats
------------------
6th #168 – SS
Da’Norris Searcy (Buf) – 22 Tk, 7 Ast, 1 Int
Alternates:
CB, Ryan Jones (N/A) – cut from Chicago Bears
6th #170 – RB
Da’Rel Scott (NYG) – 5 Rush, 16 Yds, 0 TDs
Alternate:
OT, Jah Reid (Bal) – OL have no stats
Browns: traded both 6th round picks to move up to fifth round for Pinkston.
------------------
7th / Comp #247 – DE
Brandon Bair (KC) – no stats
Alternate: QB, Tyrod Taylor (Bal) – comp/att/int 1-1-0, 18 Yds, 0 TD
Browns: Eric Hagg (S, Cle) – 9 Tk, 1 Ast, 0 Sks, 0 FF, 1 FR
------------------
Assessment: Needless to say the Browns had a successful 2011 draft class, although I still don't like Marecic in the 4th round and thought Da'Norris Searcy would have been a significant upgrade at safety over Mike Adams. Still, each player saw quality playing time and the top three picks made substantial contributions in starting roles. Statistically, the Browns picks were much more impressive than my own, and that is due to two reasons: (1) the Browns needed to use their picks during the season, and (2) when looking at the teams my picks eventually went to, most were playing behind established veterans who remained healthy for the season. But Cleveland's front office is doing something right. For being a little undersized, Jabaal Sheard was solid at DE, and you already know I really like Buster Skrine at CB. I don’t think he’s ready yet for the #2 CB spot, but he has the work ethic and upside to make it big in the NFL. Cleveland could realistically play him as their #2 CB and allow him to grow next season without going after a CB in free agency or the draft. Greg Little was the best WR option the Browns had, but I'm nervous as to how his early success will affect his offseason workouts and effort come 2012 spring camps. I hope he shows for OTAs as he could only get better, but he also had a history of getting too big in the britches while at UNC and I’m afraid he too will take a step back just as Massaquoi did after his rookie season.

Cleveland Free Agency
I will identify those players who I think are worthy of Cleveland's serious consideration, and then choose those free agents who I believe will be available and a realistic fit for the Browns organization.

QB
There are several veteran back-ups approaching free agency, and several starters who could be released outright come draft weekend if the right situation presents itself (Sanchez, Cassel, Orton, Grossman, etc). Still, with McCoy and Wallace locked up through the 2012 season, I don't see Cleveland pursuing any QB in free agency that would seriously compete with McCoy, and possibly not even Wallace as the #2, regardless of what Holmgren has said in press conferences. For all the whoopla surrounding Matt Flynn (Packers), all I am willing to say right now is that one successful game (scratch that, MONSTROUSLY successful game, albeit against the Lions DBs) is not the same as the full season accomplishments that Matt Cassel had in NE a few seasons back, and we saw how that has turned out for KC.

Free Agency Signing: Inconsequential

RB
This may be one of the better years for RBs in free agency. Size, speed, strength... there's plenty of options and skill sets depending on what type of runner a club is looking to acquire. And many could realistically be let go without any effort from their current club to resign them.
* Peyton Hillis (Browns) - Cleveland needs to resign Hillis. His running style is reminiscent of the 70's and 80's. He doesn't really fit in today's league, which in this case makes him an asset. He has great hands out of the backfield, can push the pile up the middle, has deceptive speed once he breaks the line, and is difficult to bring down anywhere on the field. He'll cost a little more than the Browns front office may want to spend, but he delivers when happy and is still liked in Cleveland even if fans were disappointed in his attitude this past season. A reasonable contract with incentives will bring him back into the fold, and another full season of ground stomping will get the fans back into his corner. But he will need a spell back to come in from time to time to prevent excessive carries and poundings his body is sure to receive over the course of a full season, otherwise the cost to resign him is wasted.
* Steve Slaton (Dolphins) - Call me crazy, but I'm probably one of the few who believe Steve Slaton still has game. He's only 27 years old and relatively unused the past three seasons. He had a monster rookie campaign for the Texans in 2008, rushing for over 1,200 yards. But a bad case of fumblitis in his second season (8 fumbles, 5 lost) tarnished his status and he was benched that season.  He hasn't had many chances since, and has not finished a season with more than 24 rushes since 2009. Yet, he has consistently had runs for over 20 yards every season behind terrible offensive lines, even with the reduction in carries, which is precisely what Cleveland needs more of from their running game. He also has not suffered a fumble since the 2009 season. He should be well rested, and his speed and elusiveness would be a good compliment to the bruising styles of Hillis (should he resign) or Ogbannaya. He is due more playing time, and will reduce the punishment from excessive carries for Hillis. In a two-HB formation (with Hillis), it will make run-blitz packages more risky, causing defenses to play on their heels and open up the running game even more. As a bonus, he's already proved to possess NFL caliber skills yet still won't demand much of a salary nor be perceived as a threat to Hillis' status as the premier back.
*Michael Bush (Raiders) - Given the Raiders stable of RBs and a new front office/coaching staff, they may very well choose not to resign their back-up RB even though he rushed for over 900 yards last season. He's big and quick at 6'1" and 245lbs. Though he's not a speedster, he has averaged 4.2 yds/rush and a 7:1 touchdown-to-fumble ratio over his 4 year career. If available, he's worth some serious consideration.

Free Agency Signing: Peyton Hillis, Steve Slaton

WR
There are a number of high profile receivers who will likely be retained by their current club, such as Vincent Jackson (San Diego) and DeShaun Jackson (Philly), but there are many more who could easily be given their release in order to free up cap space to fill more urgent holes on the roster. Many of these FAs could earn a roster spot on any team in the league, for the right price. Colston (New Orleans) will likely be a priority for the Saints as well, but if his asking price is too high to reach an agreement before free agency, Cleveland would be wise to sign him as soon as possible to anything he wants, and then put Greg Little at #2 WR. If anything, it would send a message to Massaquoi to get his game together soon or follow in the steps of Robiskie.
* Robert Meacham (Saints) - While Colston would be the Saints free agent WR I would love to see in a Browns uniform, Meacham is more of a luxury to the Saints and likely a victim of the salary cap this off season, as will a number of Saints starters entering free agency. He's played third WR in the Saints system the past three seasons, which is chock full of quality WRs (Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, A. Arrington). Meacham not only has height at 6'2", but he's also long and capable of the acrobatic catch on the side line. He's also capable of extending the field and accelerating on most CBs. He's not as physical or punishing on CBs as Colston or Vincent Jackson, but he's also not afraid of contact in the middle of the field and has sure hands. The Browns still have one of the lowest club salaries in the league while the Saints are pushing the cap, so it will be interesting to see if Lerner opens up the checkbook a little this off-season and take advantage where other clubs can't. Meacham could be the #1 for the Browns next season, although in most other systems he would be a #2.
*Jerome Simpson (Bengals) - Cincy has a handful of good, young receivers led by A.J. Green, so if Simpson's asking price is too steep, don't be surprised to see their #2 leave during the free agency period to test the waters. Rumors are Cincy is looking for a rookie WR in the latter part of the draft, so my guess is preliminary negotitations between Simpson's agent and the Bengals indicate a wide gap between what is wanted and what Cincy is looking to give. He's 6'2", and was second among Cincy's wide receivers in receptions, yards, and TDs. In 2011 he averaged over 14 yd/rec, but more importantly nearly 70% of his receptions went for first downs. Problem is he's not a #1 WR and maybe facing a suspension next season. And Little doesn't have the downfield speed to stretch defenses by himself. Of course, neither does Larry Fitzgerald, so a lack of blazing speed shouldn't be an excuse for Little not putting up 80 catches/1,000yds every season.

Free Agency Signing: Robert Meacham

OL
The Browns are basically looking at their entire second team offensive line leaving come free agency (OTs Cousins and Hicks, OGs Greco and Vallos), and I for one am saying "See Ya."  I'm willing to guess Cleveland will retain at least one of them just to reduce the work load in finding so many OL in the offseason. Still, Cleveland has to do some serious searching in free agency. Cleveland once again had issues with finding suitable blockers on the right side of the OL this past season, made worse by the loss of Steinbach at LG before the season began. There may be some talent there with Lauvao (G/T), but he's still very raw and in the learning phase for the guard position (tackle at ASU). Pashos should be holding down the RT position, but he's 31 and has had issues remaining healthy over two seasons. Steinbach, who had been relatively sold at LG, is also 31 and coming off an injury that sat him out for the season. He'll likely return to start at LG, so Cleveland needs to find a young veteran tackle or guard to fill one of those gaps on the OL and look to the future in the draft for an eventual replacement for Steinbach. Unfortunately, the pickings in free agency will be slim as teams will sign their players early before allowing them to test the market.
* G, Carl Nicks (New Orleans) - Nicks is a horse at 6'5" and 340lbs. The Saints have a large number of other high profile/high salary players currently signed long term or entering free agency this offseason. Unless both Brees and Colston give the Saints a hometown discount in return for large incentives that won't count against the salary cap, New Orleans will be hard pressed to sign another OG to a significant salary (i.e., Jahri Evans) even though Nicks will be one of three top priorities for the Saints (following Brees and Colston). He is a west coast bubba and may be interested in San Diego, who could use interior linemen themselves, but for the right price the 26 year old could be the answer at RG the Browns have needed for some time. It also permits Lauvao the time to mature before taking over for Steinbach. 
* T, Jared Gaither (Chargers) - The former Raven has been moving lately, rumored to be due to poor locker room attitude. He first went to KC in the offseason as a RFA, but was cut and acquired off waivers by the Chargers. He's a gamble in much the same as Shaun Rogers was when the Browns picked up the DT from the Lions, and Gaither would be asked to move to the less prestigious position of RT. But he's young (26 yoa), very large, and very strong. If his head is back in the game and he buys in to the system, then he's a huge pick up and shores up the right side. Ozzie Newsome (Raven GM) does not draft rubes, so that's not the issue. You know how I applauded Cleveland dumping both Winslow and Edwards due to their attitudes, and advocated those actions beforehand, but what if Gaither could come around? His reputation has taken a hit so his asking price will be reasonable for his skill level. The risk in signing him will depend on the number of years being asked for in a contract, and the chance to face off against Baltimore may be incentive enough for him to stay the course. But San Diego apparently was impressed with his body of work and will likely retain him to help out their own aging and injury depleted offensive line.
* Duece Lutui, (Cardinals) - Lutui was a solid five year starter for the Cardinals before allowing his weight to get the best of him, tipping the scales at over 390lbs and being released by Phoenix last offseason. Cincy signed him and released him within a week once he weighed in, and the Cardinals eventually resigned him for the 2011 season to give him a chance to get his weight under control. Most likely it was more of an insurance policy at OG given his knowledge of the Cardinal offense. Regardless, he didn't play in 2011 but is reportedly back down to his playing weight at 338lbs now and has apparently heeded the wake-up call. However, the offseason will tell if he's committed to staying in playing shape before preseason camps. The Cardinals will likely weigh him before free agency to see if he falls within their limits, but I'm guessing regardless of his weight they'll let him go as it has been an issue two years running. He is a potential all-pro guard and is worth the risk for Cleveland to sign at only 28 years old. Plus, he's from Mesa, AZ, so getting him away from his extended family will help him maintain focus on what should be important to him right now... his playing career.

Free Agency Signing: Deuce Lutui

K/P
Phil Dawson remains a fan favorite, but there were some uncharacteristic misses this past season even though his overall FG percentage was right at his career average. At punter, it's been a revolving door the past few seasons due to injuries, and neither punter on the roster has been anything other than average. In both cases, the question facing the Browns is "why not look for something new?" In 2011, Dawson signed for one more year at over $3M, which is a lot for a kicker to begin with, let alone one who missed too many chip shots, and Cleveland has a rookie K on the practice squad they seem to like (Jeff Wolfert, Mizzou). Dawson still has a good reputation in the league for being stable, and I think he'll take his game somewhere else for a chance at a ring, possibly replacing Nick Novak in San Diego, or better yet replacing 41 year old Hanson in Detroit if he retires. The dome in Detroit would almost guarantee 3 points from Dawson when kicking inside 50 yards.

Free Agency Signing: Uncertain

DL
Cleveland did much better with the draft than I anticipated. Taylor and Sheard contributed early and often, but even with Sheard's 8.5 sacks the QB pressure still just wasn't there with any consistency. One good veteran DE and another year of maturity are needed for the Browns to have that backfield push they've been missing. The DBs will certainly appreciate it.
* DE/LB, Mario Williams (Texans) - Williams only played in 5 games last year due to a season ending injury. Fortunately for the Texans, Connor Barwin took over and they have found a less expensive version for the future. Fortunately for the Browns, Williams will need to go somewhere else in 2012. Although listed as a LB with the Texans, at 6'6" and 285lbs he is identical in size to current Brown DE Jayme Mitchell who is only signed through the 2012 season. But Williams is 4 years younger than Mitchell and more polished, and could be the young veteran pass rusher the Browns have needed. His stats had decreased in 2009 and 2010, but I believe this was due to learning a new position by moving from DE to OLB. In 2011, he recorded 4 sacks in only 4.5 games prior to his injury, so he's learned to play either OLB or DE, but DE is his natural position. Get him back in a three point stance and let's see those sack numbers move back into the double-digits. He would compliment Jabaal Sheard well on the other side of the DL.
* DE, Cory Redding (Ravens) - Redding will be 32 next season, but has been one of the more consistent performers for the Ravens while being overshadowed by Baltimore's more visible defensive studs. He doesn't fit the mold of a younger player I would prefer and will not be a sack leader, but he can stop the run on the outside as well as pressure the QB when needed. Of course, Cleveland picked up another aging DE in Jayme Mitchell last season, but he's never had Redding's skills.
* DE, Cliff Avril (Lions) - He's regarded as the best pass rushing DE for the Lions, tallying 11 sacks and forcing 6 fumbles in 2011.  But getting to the QB has not been an issue for their DL, so retaining Avril will not be a priority given Detroit's issues with their DBs and OL. He's a little undersized at 6'3" and 260lbs, but so is Jabaal Sheard and he made progress for Cleveland this past year. Avril also may have benefited from Detroit's Suh and Fairly pushing the interior defensive line, but his skills are sound. He'll be getting attention from other 4-3 defenses, and Cleveland shouldn't let this one go by without testing the waters.

Free Agency Signing: Cliff Avril;  Mario Williams would be the sure bet at DE in the Browns 4-3 defense and my top choice, but his asking price will likely off-put the Browns. He'll also likely choose Dallas or Chicago over Cleveland regardless of what is offered, but they should really pursue Williams hard no matter what.

LB
D'Qwell Jackson and Chris Gocong were highlights at LB in 2011, which is something that has been missing from the Browns defense for some time. Gocong's performance has been consistent, if not pro bowl caliber, since coming from the Eagles and is signed through the 2014 season. Scott Fujita's performance has decreased significantly over the past few years dating back to the Saints, and hasn't had a full season of work since 2006, but is signed through the 2012 season and most likely won't be released... yet. Kaluka Maiava should have fit into the mold of a weak side LB, but has not produced the way one would have hoped and should be released with a year remaining on his rookie contract.
* D'Qwell Jackson (Browns)  - This was a make or break season for Jackson, and he didn't disappoint. He established in 2011 that he belongs among the NFL's elite MLBs, eclipsing 150 tackles for the second time (154 in 2008). Unfortunately, he has remained healthy only twice in his six seasons (2008 & 2011). Although he only missed three games in 2006 and two in 2007, he played in only six games in 2009 and missed the entire 2010 season, so there would understandably be some hesitation at signing him to a long-term contract. Still, he played up to his 1yr/$4.75M this year, and if Cleveland is smart they will sign him early before free agency as a number of other teams (Minnesota, Carolina, New England, Buffalo) will be looking to sign an established MLB/ILB and it could start a bidding war. He's UFA, so Cleveland doesn't have any exclusivity to his rights.
* Anthony Spenser (Cowboys) - Spenser has publicly admitted he has likely played his last game in Dallas, although it is uncertain if that is his preference. He's not an elite OLB, just a good one. But he is still young at 27 years old and has a history of being a run stopper and pass rushing OLB. The Browns currently utilize a strong and weak side LB in their 4-3 defense, but Spenser operates best from the left side. He could be a great benefit when Cleveland decides to blitz a fifth defender or in nickel coverages, as he recorded 6 sacks and forced 4 fumbles in 2011. He's 5 years younger than Fujita and has remained healthy during his career, starting the past three seasons for the Cowboys.
* Dan Connor (Panthers) - Connor spent the last four seasons behind Carolina's starting LBs, but started 11 games in 2011 due to their injuries. With a healthy LB crew returning to Carolina in 2012, he likely won't stay around to be the 4th again, and Carolina probably won't want to pay him an increase in salary without knowing for certain he's in their future plans, which isn't likely. He's a good fit for Cleveland's weak side LB position as he's more of a finesse LB; good in coverage and at reading the QB. He won't get to the QB nor force fumbles, but he is a solid tackler and comes at an agreeable price. He'll be an upgrade to Maiava, and healthier than Fujita.

Free Agency Signing: D'Qwell Jackson, Anthony Spencer

DB
* Mike Adams (Browns) - A number of people have found Adams' body of work to be admirable given certain athletic limitations, and hence have voiced resigning him before free agency. I would suggest letting Adams test the market before making an offer. It's not that he doesn't have some skills or wasn't marginally effective, but he'll be 31 years old in 2012 and it simply is not beneficial to resign him until other teams determine what they believe his market value to be. Overall, I like what we saw in Usama Young and believe he can move over from SS to FS when TJ Ward returns from injury in 2012.
* Tracy Porter (Saints) - Porter is considered one of the better CBs in the league. His main problem is staying healthy. Although he has great upside, his lack of durability and the Saints own issues with the salary cap will cause them to look elsewhere for a #2 CB. Cleveland has a number of sub-package CBs on the roster, but needs a good #2 opposite Joe Haden. Porter is a great cover corner and has gotten to the ball throughout his career (10 pass deflections in 12 games in 2011).  
* Terrell Thomas (NYG) - Thomas reportedly will make a full recovery from a season ending injury in 2011. He is considered a solid #2 CB who provides top notch defensive run support on the corner. Cleveland needs better run support from DBs other than their safeties. He's a physical CB who will bump WRs at the line and throw off timing plays.

Free Agency Signing: Tracy Porter; Mike Adams will eventually return after testing the market, and will resign for one year at about $1.3M

Cleveland Draft
The popular opinion is that St. Louis has all the leverage in the upcoming draft, holding down the #2 pick and not wanting Robert Griffin III since they have committed big bucks to Sam Bradford at QB. They could trade down with another team, and the Dolphins and Redskins are reportedly actively searching for a new QB, with the Browns listed as another potential candidate and capable of providing the best trade package with the Rams.  Nonsense!  With all due respect to the experts, the Browns are the ones who hold all the cards for the 1st round. It is probably a foregone conclusion that the Colts will take Andrew Luck with the first pick, and the Vikings are committed to Ponder at QB, meaning they'll likely look to bolster their OL by taking OT Matt Kalil (USC) with the 3rd pick. That leaves Cleveland at #4 and determining the entire face of the 1st round.  The truth is, Cleveland cannot lose with the #4 draft pick, and has no reason to move up.

If the Dolphins or Redskins trade up for the 2nd pick to take RGIII, that would still leave WR Juston Blackmon (Ok St) with the 4th selection, a position greatly in need for the Browns and a pick that would only help McCoy's downfield passing game. However, some analysts have proposed that instead of the Rams turning their #2 pick into multiple picks this year and next, they may go ahead and take Kalil at #2 to give Bradford more protection. This would entice the Vikings to select Blackmon to give Ponder the receiving weapon he didn't have this past season. Or perhaps vice versa, with the Rams taking Blackmon to give Bradford his #1 WR and the Vikings picking up Kalil at LT. Either way, this would mean RGIII would still be available at #4 and that would be too tempting for the Browns to pass up, and I would reluctantly have to agree.  

Let's look at all the possible scenarios where Cleveland does not trade up to the #2 slot:

Scenario #1: Dolphins or Redskins trade up to #2.
Pick  Team                                                                             Player                                                                                        .
1.      Colts                                                                              QB, Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2.      Redskins or Dolphins (Trade with Rams)                QB, Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
3.      Vikings                                                                          OT, Matt Kalil (USC)
4.      Browns                                                                         WR, Juston Blackmon (Ok. State)

Scenario #2: Rams keep #2.
Pick  Team                                                                             Player                                                                                        .
1.      Colts                                                                              QB, Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2.      Rams                                                                             WR, Juston Blackmon (Ok. State) or OT, Matt Kalil (USC)
3.      Vikings                                                                          OT, Matt Kalil (USC) or WR, Juston Blackmon (Ok. State)
4.      Browns                                                                         QB, Robert Griffin III (Baylor)

Scenario #3: Dolphins or Redskins trade up to #2.
Pick  Team                                                                             Player                                                                                        .
1.      Colts                                                                              QB, Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2.      Redskins or Dolphins (Trade with Rams)                QB, Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
3.      Vikings                                                                          WR, Juston Blackmon (Ok. State)
4.      Browns                                                                         OT, Matt Kalil (USC)

                Someone needs to show me where Cleveland is going to lose out by sticking with the 4th pick, because I don't see it. Either they're getting a #1 WR, a gift QB they can't refuse, or the right side of their OL they haven't had in several seasons, and they didn't have to sacrifice a later draft pick for any of those options. For anyone worried about the Browns not getting WR Blackmon, the Redskins and Eagles could be the only ones looking to sign a WR in the 1st round, and there will still be three legitimate draft choices after the 4th pick (Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffries). At least one will still be available by the time the Browns return at #22.
            Now, if you've read anything about RGIII's educational prowess at Baylor, then you know he is incredibly intelligent. His scholastic record is quite impressive, so I have no doubt he could pick up new systems quickly, but there would still be growing pains. A new system, a new playbook, new receivers, new timing... plus his short and medium range accuracy is actually worse than longer routes. Miami is probably a better fit for RGIII, but Washington has always been more aggressive in pursuing players. So unless Cleveland trumps anything the Redskins offer to trade up with St. Louis, he would go to Washington and suffer behind an offensive line that, though improving, still provides poor protection, a receiver corps that is as bad as Cleveland's, and an offensive coordinator who hasn't shined much recently. I don't think the Browns would suffer in letting RGIII go, and I wouldn't complain if he was still sitting there at #4.
            Still, if the Browns trade up to take RGIII it wouldn't be all that surprising. Holmgren didn't go out on a limb to draft McCoy and didn't give up anything to get him, as it was a surprise he fell so far in the 2010 draft. So if they determine after 1.5 seasons that he's not their QB of the future, they won't have egg on their face and only have to deal with McCoy's modest salary for one more year. If they let RGIII go to another club and he succeeds while McCoy struggles through another season, then not only could Shurmur be sent packing, but Holmgren and Heckert may also find it preferable to leave on their own rather than be fired, which is a shame considering H&H have done a pretty good job of setting the foundation for a really talented club.
            In either case, whether it be through trades or some other scenario that the Browns end up with RGIII as their first pick, the big questions will be dealing with what the Redskins and Eagles do in the offseason and draft. With RGIII going to the Browns, then the Redskins will shift gears and focus on a WR in the first (#6), probably Michael Floyd (N.D.). If DeShaun Jackson's emotions are still sour and they are unable to resign their top receiver, then the Eagles are going to be looking to sign either Kendall Wright (Baylor) or Alshon Jeffries (S. Carolina) to fill that void at WR. If Jackson does resign with the Eagles, then they'll likely look at Kuechly (Boston College) at MLB. This means Cleveland has a chance to choose either Wright or Jeffries, and both are legitimate #1 WRs in the NFL. The Browns would then have to fill out their offensive line and backfields in the later rounds. No matter which WR is available, Cleveland needs to stay away from Michael Floyd. He's incredibly overrated and he won't stay out of trouble once he gets into the NFL.
            And speaking of emotions running high, if Peyton Hillis doesn't resign with the Browns, then there is a chance the Browns will sign top RB Trent Richardson (Alabama) with their first pick, and again I would reluctantly agree with that decision, although #4 is probably too high for Richardson considering no other club is looking for a RB until the mid-1st. As badly as they need a WR who can stretch defenses, there is no passing game without a running game.
            I also have this interesting idea that the Rams new coaching staff could go a separate direction, and may work with Cleveland  on a trade in which they receive the Browns #4 in exchange for QB Sam Bradford. The Rams would then use their #2 for RGIII and the #4 for their WR or OT.  Don't laugh at it, Shurmur was Bradford's offensive coordinator in St. Louis in 2010, and there was definitely something missing in Bradford's game between 2010 and last season. Of course, the Browns would also probably want some salary cap relief from St. Louis on Bradford's contract, and likely wouldn't do the deal until after the signing bonus period. I'm hoping this doesn't happen though.   
            It's too early to go through the entire draft at this time given no offseason moves have been made yet, but here is my breakdown of the first round for Cleveland. Once the senior bowls and offseason activities begin, we'll have a better idea of what condition the Browns' roster is in.

1st Round – #4
WR – Juston Blackmon, Oklahoma St.
The Browns would be wise to pick up a veteran WR in free agency, but Blackmon could be a #1 as a rookie.
QB – Robert Griffin III, Baylor
If somehow RGIII is still there at #4, and that is a real possibility, then the Browns will take him and I wouldn’t argue against it. I wouldn’t give up multiple picks to get him, but it would be too tempting to pass him up if he was there come time to select.
OT – Matt Kalil, USC
It is possible that Cleveland could be looking at their starting RT and back-up LT in Kalil when #4 comes around. That would be almost as tempting as RGIII. If Luck, RGIII, and Blackmon are gone, then Kalil would be my choice, so long as Hillis has resigned with the club.
HB – Trent Richardson, Alabama
If Peyton Hillis does not resign with the Browns, then Cleveland needs a RB and Richardson is the #1 RB in the draft. Still, I find it difficult to see the Browns taking Richardson at #4. No other team is looking for a RB except NY Jets and New England, and they fall farther back in the first round. Cleveland could trade down for even more picks and still get Richardson before the Jets.

1st Round – #22
WR – Kendall Wright, Baylor   or   Alshon Jeffries, S. Carolina
If Cleveland doesn’t get a WR in free agency or with the 4th draft pick, then they should be looking for one at #22. The Redskins and Eagles both are looking for WRs, and the Redksins (#6) will likely look to South Bend’s Michael Floyd. If the Eagles (#15) resign DeShaun Jackson, then both Wright and Jeffries may be available at the time the Browns make their second pick (#22).  Kendall Wright is my top choice between the two, and pairing him with RGIII again would be ideal.
OT/OG – Zebrie Sanders, Florida State,  Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State, or Mike Adams, Ohio State
Sanders is strong and quick on his feet, and would be capable of starting right away at either guard or tackle in the NFL. What Cleveland does in free agency to address the right side of the OL would determine which position he would fill.
Osemele is huge at over 340lbs, and could probably lose 20 lbs and still be great. But offensive line coaches want their lineman to be as big as they can be effective. He too could start right away at RG or RT, but Cleveland doesn’t have a great track record of grooming offensive lineman. One of the benefits of grabbing Osemele is that it keeps him away from the Ravens, who reportedly are high on him. But that should be a benefit and not a motivation. Mike Adams is one of the biggest understated linemen in the draft this year, likely due to his early season suspension. His skills are as good and NFL-ready as any other OT in the draft not named Kalil. I'm betting his stock rises after the Senior Bowl and combines.
MLB – Luke Kuechly, Boston College
This all depends on D’Qwell Jackson and the Eagles. D’Qwell is going to ask for top dollar, and given his history of injuries and the Browns historically tight purse strings, they could fail to resign him. Kuechly is the best MLB in the draft and could drop this far depending on the Eagles. If Philly has to sign a WR with the 15th pick, then Kuechly is there for the taking and he would be an absolute necessity without Jackson holding down the centerpiece of Cleveland’s 4-3 defense. He has the strength to stuff the inside run, the speed to beat backs to the corner, and the agility to cover receivers. A 4-3 defense can work with so-so OLBs, but a strong MLB is a must.
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