So, I have been doing a little online research and picked my own brain to think about the offseason for the Browns roster. First, let's look at how last year's draft picks turned out. My picks from last year are in black font (with those alternates I identified last year) while Cleveland's actual picks are in orange font.
1st Round, #6 – DT/DE
Marcell Dareus (Buf) – 32 Tk, 11 Ast, 5.5 Sks, 3 Stf, 0 FF, 1 FR
or
Robert Quinn (StL) – 19 Tk, 3, Ast, 5 Sks, 1 Stf
Alternates:
J.J. Watt (DE, Hou) – 49 Tk, 7 Ast, 5.5 Sks, 7 Stf, 0 FF, 2 FR
Adrian Claybourne (DE, TB) – 29 Tk, 13 Ast, 7.5 Sks, 2.5 Stf, 3FF, 0 FR
Browns: Trade down for Phil Taylor (DT, Cle) – 37 Tk, 22 Ast, 4 Sks, 2 Stf, 1 FF, 0 FR
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2nd Round, #37 – LB
Martez Wilson (NO) – 3 Tk, 3 Ast, 0 Sks, 0 Stf, 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 Int
Alternates:
CB, Davon House (GB) – no stats/ankle injury
WR, Torrey Smith (Bal) – 50 Rec, 841yds, 7 TDs
Browns: Jabaal Sheard (DE, Cle) – 40 Tk, 15 Ast, 8.5 Sks, 8.5 Stf, 5 FF, 1 FR
Browns: Greg Little (WR, Cle) – 61 Rec, 709 Yds, 2 TDs
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3rd Round, #70 – OG
Clint Boling (Cin) – OL have no stats
Alternates:
OG, Will Rackley (Jax) – OL have no stats
Browns: Traded
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4th #102 – WR
Terrence Tolliver (Det) – no stats
Alternates:
TE, D.J. Williams (GB) – 2 Rec, 13 Yds, 0 TDs
DE, Lawrence Guy (GB) – no stats
Browns: Jordan Cameron (TE, Cle) – 6 Rec, 33 Yds, 0 TDs
Browns: Owen Marecic (FB, Cle) – 4 Rush, 8 Yds, 0 TDs
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5th #137 – DT
Jarvis Jenkins (Wash) – no stats / IR
Alternates:
OLB, Ross Homan (N/A) – Released from Tampa Bay practice squad
OG, Benjamin Ijalana (Ind) – OL have no stats
Browns: Buster Skrine (CB, Cle) – 7 Tk, 2 Ast, 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 Int
Browns: Jason Pinkston (OT, Cle) – OL have no stats
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6th #168 – SS
Da’Norris Searcy (Buf) – 22 Tk, 7 Ast, 1 Int
Alternates:
CB, Ryan Jones (N/A) – cut from Chicago Bears
6th #170 – RB
Da’Rel Scott (NYG) – 5 Rush, 16 Yds, 0 TDs
Alternate:
OT, Jah Reid (Bal) – OL have no stats
Browns: traded both 6th round picks to move up to fifth round for Pinkston.
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7th / Comp #247 – DE
Brandon Bair (KC) – no stats
Alternate: QB, Tyrod Taylor (Bal) – comp/att/int 1-1-0, 18 Yds, 0 TD
Browns: Eric Hagg (S, Cle) – 9 Tk, 1 Ast, 0 Sks, 0 FF, 1 FR
Browns: Eric Hagg (S, Cle) – 9 Tk, 1 Ast, 0 Sks, 0 FF, 1 FR
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Assessment: Needless to say the Browns had a successful 2011 draft class, although I still don't like Marecic in the 4th round and thought Da'Norris Searcy would have been a significant upgrade at safety over Mike Adams. Still, each player saw quality playing time and the top three picks made substantial contributions in starting roles. Statistically, the Browns picks were much more impressive than my own, and that is due to two reasons: (1) the Browns needed to use their picks during the season, and (2) when looking at the teams my picks eventually went to, most were playing behind established veterans who remained healthy for the season. But Cleveland's front office is doing something right. For being a little undersized, Jabaal Sheard was solid at DE, and you already know I really like Buster Skrine at CB. I don’t think he’s ready yet for the #2 CB spot, but he has the work ethic and upside to make it big in the NFL. Cleveland could realistically play him as their #2 CB and allow him to grow next season without going after a CB in free agency or the draft. Greg Little was the best WR option the Browns had, but I'm nervous as to how his early success will affect his offseason workouts and effort come 2012 spring camps. I hope he shows for OTAs as he could only get better, but he also had a history of getting too big in the britches while at UNC and I’m afraid he too will take a step back just as Massaquoi did after his rookie season.
Cleveland Free Agency
I will identify those players who I think are worthy of Cleveland's serious consideration, and then choose those free agents who I believe will be available and a realistic fit for the Browns organization.
QB
There are several veteran back-ups approaching free agency, and several starters who could be released outright come draft weekend if the right situation presents itself (Sanchez, Cassel, Orton, Grossman, etc). Still, with McCoy and Wallace locked up through the 2012 season, I don't see Cleveland pursuing any QB in free agency that would seriously compete with McCoy, and possibly not even Wallace as the #2, regardless of what Holmgren has said in press conferences. For all the whoopla surrounding Matt Flynn (Packers), all I am willing to say right now is that one successful game (scratch that, MONSTROUSLY successful game, albeit against the Lions DBs) is not the same as the full season accomplishments that Matt Cassel had in NE a few seasons back, and we saw how that has turned out for KC.
Free Agency Signing: Inconsequential
RB
This may be one of the better years for RBs in free agency. Size, speed, strength... there's plenty of options and skill sets depending on what type of runner a club is looking to acquire. And many could realistically be let go without any effort from their current club to resign them.
* Peyton Hillis (Browns) - Cleveland needs to resign Hillis. His running style is reminiscent of the 70's and 80's. He doesn't really fit in today's league, which in this case makes him an asset. He has great hands out of the backfield, can push the pile up the middle, has deceptive speed once he breaks the line, and is difficult to bring down anywhere on the field. He'll cost a little more than the Browns front office may want to spend, but he delivers when happy and is still liked in Cleveland even if fans were disappointed in his attitude this past season. A reasonable contract with incentives will bring him back into the fold, and another full season of ground stomping will get the fans back into his corner. But he will need a spell back to come in from time to time to prevent excessive carries and poundings his body is sure to receive over the course of a full season, otherwise the cost to resign him is wasted.
* Steve Slaton (Dolphins) - Call me crazy, but I'm probably one of the few who believe Steve Slaton still has game. He's only 27 years old and relatively unused the past three seasons. He had a monster rookie campaign for the Texans in 2008, rushing for over 1,200 yards. But a bad case of fumblitis in his second season (8 fumbles, 5 lost) tarnished his status and he was benched that season. He hasn't had many chances since, and has not finished a season with more than 24 rushes since 2009. Yet, he has consistently had runs for over 20 yards every season behind terrible offensive lines, even with the reduction in carries, which is precisely what Cleveland needs more of from their running game. He also has not suffered a fumble since the 2009 season. He should be well rested, and his speed and elusiveness would be a good compliment to the bruising styles of Hillis (should he resign) or Ogbannaya. He is due more playing time, and will reduce the punishment from excessive carries for Hillis. In a two-HB formation (with Hillis), it will make run-blitz packages more risky, causing defenses to play on their heels and open up the running game even more. As a bonus, he's already proved to possess NFL caliber skills yet still won't demand much of a salary nor be perceived as a threat to Hillis' status as the premier back.
*Michael Bush (Raiders) - Given the Raiders stable of RBs and a new front office/coaching staff, they may very well choose not to resign their back-up RB even though he rushed for over 900 yards last season. He's big and quick at 6'1" and 245lbs. Though he's not a speedster, he has averaged 4.2 yds/rush and a 7:1 touchdown-to-fumble ratio over his 4 year career. If available, he's worth some serious consideration.
Free Agency Signing: Peyton Hillis, Steve Slaton
WR
There are a number of high profile receivers who will likely be retained by their current club, such as Vincent Jackson (San Diego) and DeShaun Jackson (Philly), but there are many more who could easily be given their release in order to free up cap space to fill more urgent holes on the roster. Many of these FAs could earn a roster spot on any team in the league, for the right price. Colston (New Orleans) will likely be a priority for the Saints as well, but if his asking price is too high to reach an agreement before free agency, Cleveland would be wise to sign him as soon as possible to anything he wants, and then put Greg Little at #2 WR. If anything, it would send a message to Massaquoi to get his game together soon or follow in the steps of Robiskie.
* Robert Meacham (Saints) - While Colston would be the Saints free agent WR I would love to see in a Browns uniform, Meacham is more of a luxury to the Saints and likely a victim of the salary cap this off season, as will a number of Saints starters entering free agency. He's played third WR in the Saints system the past three seasons, which is chock full of quality WRs (Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, A. Arrington). Meacham not only has height at 6'2", but he's also long and capable of the acrobatic catch on the side line. He's also capable of extending the field and accelerating on most CBs. He's not as physical or punishing on CBs as Colston or Vincent Jackson, but he's also not afraid of contact in the middle of the field and has sure hands. The Browns still have one of the lowest club salaries in the league while the Saints are pushing the cap, so it will be interesting to see if Lerner opens up the checkbook a little this off-season and take advantage where other clubs can't. Meacham could be the #1 for the Browns next season, although in most other systems he would be a #2.
*Jerome Simpson (Bengals) - Cincy has a handful of good, young receivers led by A.J. Green, so if Simpson's asking price is too steep, don't be surprised to see their #2 leave during the free agency period to test the waters. Rumors are Cincy is looking for a rookie WR in the latter part of the draft, so my guess is preliminary negotitations between Simpson's agent and the Bengals indicate a wide gap between what is wanted and what Cincy is looking to give. He's 6'2", and was second among Cincy's wide receivers in receptions, yards, and TDs. In 2011 he averaged over 14 yd/rec, but more importantly nearly 70% of his receptions went for first downs. Problem is he's not a #1 WR and maybe facing a suspension next season. And Little doesn't have the downfield speed to stretch defenses by himself. Of course, neither does Larry Fitzgerald, so a lack of blazing speed shouldn't be an excuse for Little not putting up 80 catches/1,000yds every season.
Free Agency Signing: Robert Meacham
OL
The Browns are basically looking at their entire second team offensive line leaving come free agency (OTs Cousins and Hicks, OGs Greco and Vallos), and I for one am saying "See Ya." I'm willing to guess Cleveland will retain at least one of them just to reduce the work load in finding so many OL in the offseason. Still, Cleveland has to do some serious searching in free agency. Cleveland once again had issues with finding suitable blockers on the right side of the OL this past season, made worse by the loss of Steinbach at LG before the season began. There may be some talent there with Lauvao (G/T), but he's still very raw and in the learning phase for the guard position (tackle at ASU). Pashos should be holding down the RT position, but he's 31 and has had issues remaining healthy over two seasons. Steinbach, who had been relatively sold at LG, is also 31 and coming off an injury that sat him out for the season. He'll likely return to start at LG, so Cleveland needs to find a young veteran tackle or guard to fill one of those gaps on the OL and look to the future in the draft for an eventual replacement for Steinbach. Unfortunately, the pickings in free agency will be slim as teams will sign their players early before allowing them to test the market.
* G, Carl Nicks (New Orleans) - Nicks is a horse at 6'5" and 340lbs. The Saints have a large number of other high profile/high salary players currently signed long term or entering free agency this offseason. Unless both Brees and Colston give the Saints a hometown discount in return for large incentives that won't count against the salary cap, New Orleans will be hard pressed to sign another OG to a significant salary (i.e., Jahri Evans) even though Nicks will be one of three top priorities for the Saints (following Brees and Colston). He is a west coast bubba and may be interested in San Diego, who could use interior linemen themselves, but for the right price the 26 year old could be the answer at RG the Browns have needed for some time. It also permits Lauvao the time to mature before taking over for Steinbach.
* T, Jared Gaither (Chargers) - The former Raven has been moving lately, rumored to be due to poor locker room attitude. He first went to KC in the offseason as a RFA, but was cut and acquired off waivers by the Chargers. He's a gamble in much the same as Shaun Rogers was when the Browns picked up the DT from the Lions, and Gaither would be asked to move to the less prestigious position of RT. But he's young (26 yoa), very large, and very strong. If his head is back in the game and he buys in to the system, then he's a huge pick up and shores up the right side. Ozzie Newsome (Raven GM) does not draft rubes, so that's not the issue. You know how I applauded Cleveland dumping both Winslow and Edwards due to their attitudes, and advocated those actions beforehand, but what if Gaither could come around? His reputation has taken a hit so his asking price will be reasonable for his skill level. The risk in signing him will depend on the number of years being asked for in a contract, and the chance to face off against Baltimore may be incentive enough for him to stay the course. But San Diego apparently was impressed with his body of work and will likely retain him to help out their own aging and injury depleted offensive line.
* Duece Lutui, (Cardinals) - Lutui was a solid five year starter for the Cardinals before allowing his weight to get the best of him, tipping the scales at over 390lbs and being released by Phoenix last offseason. Cincy signed him and released him within a week once he weighed in, and the Cardinals eventually resigned him for the 2011 season to give him a chance to get his weight under control. Most likely it was more of an insurance policy at OG given his knowledge of the Cardinal offense. Regardless, he didn't play in 2011 but is reportedly back down to his playing weight at 338lbs now and has apparently heeded the wake-up call. However, the offseason will tell if he's committed to staying in playing shape before preseason camps. The Cardinals will likely weigh him before free agency to see if he falls within their limits, but I'm guessing regardless of his weight they'll let him go as it has been an issue two years running. He is a potential all-pro guard and is worth the risk for Cleveland to sign at only 28 years old. Plus, he's from Mesa, AZ, so getting him away from his extended family will help him maintain focus on what should be important to him right now... his playing career.
Free Agency Signing: Deuce Lutui
K/P
Phil Dawson remains a fan favorite, but there were some uncharacteristic misses this past season even though his overall FG percentage was right at his career average. At punter, it's been a revolving door the past few seasons due to injuries, and neither punter on the roster has been anything other than average. In both cases, the question facing the Browns is "why not look for something new?" In 2011, Dawson signed for one more year at over $3M, which is a lot for a kicker to begin with, let alone one who missed too many chip shots, and Cleveland has a rookie K on the practice squad they seem to like (Jeff Wolfert, Mizzou). Dawson still has a good reputation in the league for being stable, and I think he'll take his game somewhere else for a chance at a ring, possibly replacing Nick Novak in San Diego, or better yet replacing 41 year old Hanson in Detroit if he retires. The dome in Detroit would almost guarantee 3 points from Dawson when kicking inside 50 yards.
Free Agency Signing: Uncertain
DL
Cleveland did much better with the draft than I anticipated. Taylor and Sheard contributed early and often, but even with Sheard's 8.5 sacks the QB pressure still just wasn't there with any consistency. One good veteran DE and another year of maturity are needed for the Browns to have that backfield push they've been missing. The DBs will certainly appreciate it.
* DE/LB, Mario Williams (Texans) - Williams only played in 5 games last year due to a season ending injury. Fortunately for the Texans, Connor Barwin took over and they have found a less expensive version for the future. Fortunately for the Browns, Williams will need to go somewhere else in 2012. Although listed as a LB with the Texans, at 6'6" and 285lbs he is identical in size to current Brown DE Jayme Mitchell who is only signed through the 2012 season. But Williams is 4 years younger than Mitchell and more polished, and could be the young veteran pass rusher the Browns have needed. His stats had decreased in 2009 and 2010, but I believe this was due to learning a new position by moving from DE to OLB. In 2011, he recorded 4 sacks in only 4.5 games prior to his injury, so he's learned to play either OLB or DE, but DE is his natural position. Get him back in a three point stance and let's see those sack numbers move back into the double-digits. He would compliment Jabaal Sheard well on the other side of the DL.
* DE, Cory Redding (Ravens) - Redding will be 32 next season, but has been one of the more consistent performers for the Ravens while being overshadowed by Baltimore's more visible defensive studs. He doesn't fit the mold of a younger player I would prefer and will not be a sack leader, but he can stop the run on the outside as well as pressure the QB when needed. Of course, Cleveland picked up another aging DE in Jayme Mitchell last season, but he's never had Redding's skills.
* DE, Cliff Avril (Lions) - He's regarded as the best pass rushing DE for the Lions, tallying 11 sacks and forcing 6 fumbles in 2011. But getting to the QB has not been an issue for their DL, so retaining Avril will not be a priority given Detroit's issues with their DBs and OL. He's a little undersized at 6'3" and 260lbs, but so is Jabaal Sheard and he made progress for Cleveland this past year. Avril also may have benefited from Detroit's Suh and Fairly pushing the interior defensive line, but his skills are sound. He'll be getting attention from other 4-3 defenses, and Cleveland shouldn't let this one go by without testing the waters.
Free Agency Signing: Cliff Avril; Mario Williams would be the sure bet at DE in the Browns 4-3 defense and my top choice, but his asking price will likely off-put the Browns. He'll also likely choose Dallas or Chicago over Cleveland regardless of what is offered, but they should really pursue Williams hard no matter what.
LB
D'Qwell Jackson and Chris Gocong were highlights at LB in 2011, which is something that has been missing from the Browns defense for some time. Gocong's performance has been consistent, if not pro bowl caliber, since coming from the Eagles and is signed through the 2014 season. Scott Fujita's performance has decreased significantly over the past few years dating back to the Saints, and hasn't had a full season of work since 2006, but is signed through the 2012 season and most likely won't be released... yet. Kaluka Maiava should have fit into the mold of a weak side LB, but has not produced the way one would have hoped and should be released with a year remaining on his rookie contract.
* D'Qwell Jackson (Browns) - This was a make or break season for Jackson, and he didn't disappoint. He established in 2011 that he belongs among the NFL's elite MLBs, eclipsing 150 tackles for the second time (154 in 2008). Unfortunately, he has remained healthy only twice in his six seasons (2008 & 2011). Although he only missed three games in 2006 and two in 2007, he played in only six games in 2009 and missed the entire 2010 season, so there would understandably be some hesitation at signing him to a long-term contract. Still, he played up to his 1yr/$4.75M this year, and if Cleveland is smart they will sign him early before free agency as a number of other teams (Minnesota, Carolina, New England, Buffalo) will be looking to sign an established MLB/ILB and it could start a bidding war. He's UFA, so Cleveland doesn't have any exclusivity to his rights.
* Anthony Spenser (Cowboys) - Spenser has publicly admitted he has likely played his last game in Dallas, although it is uncertain if that is his preference. He's not an elite OLB, just a good one. But he is still young at 27 years old and has a history of being a run stopper and pass rushing OLB. The Browns currently utilize a strong and weak side LB in their 4-3 defense, but Spenser operates best from the left side. He could be a great benefit when Cleveland decides to blitz a fifth defender or in nickel coverages, as he recorded 6 sacks and forced 4 fumbles in 2011. He's 5 years younger than Fujita and has remained healthy during his career, starting the past three seasons for the Cowboys.
* Dan Connor (Panthers) - Connor spent the last four seasons behind Carolina's starting LBs, but started 11 games in 2011 due to their injuries. With a healthy LB crew returning to Carolina in 2012, he likely won't stay around to be the 4th again, and Carolina probably won't want to pay him an increase in salary without knowing for certain he's in their future plans, which isn't likely. He's a good fit for Cleveland's weak side LB position as he's more of a finesse LB; good in coverage and at reading the QB. He won't get to the QB nor force fumbles, but he is a solid tackler and comes at an agreeable price. He'll be an upgrade to Maiava, and healthier than Fujita.
Free Agency Signing: D'Qwell Jackson, Anthony Spencer
DB
* Mike Adams (Browns) - A number of people have found Adams' body of work to be admirable given certain athletic limitations, and hence have voiced resigning him before free agency. I would suggest letting Adams test the market before making an offer. It's not that he doesn't have some skills or wasn't marginally effective, but he'll be 31 years old in 2012 and it simply is not beneficial to resign him until other teams determine what they believe his market value to be. Overall, I like what we saw in Usama Young and believe he can move over from SS to FS when TJ Ward returns from injury in 2012.
* Tracy Porter (Saints) - Porter is considered one of the better CBs in the league. His main problem is staying healthy. Although he has great upside, his lack of durability and the Saints own issues with the salary cap will cause them to look elsewhere for a #2 CB. Cleveland has a number of sub-package CBs on the roster, but needs a good #2 opposite Joe Haden. Porter is a great cover corner and has gotten to the ball throughout his career (10 pass deflections in 12 games in 2011).
* Terrell Thomas (NYG) - Thomas reportedly will make a full recovery from a season ending injury in 2011. He is considered a solid #2 CB who provides top notch defensive run support on the corner. Cleveland needs better run support from DBs other than their safeties. He's a physical CB who will bump WRs at the line and throw off timing plays.
Free Agency Signing: Tracy Porter; Mike Adams will eventually return after testing the market, and will resign for one year at about $1.3M
Cleveland Draft
The popular opinion is that St. Louis has all the leverage in the upcoming draft, holding down the #2 pick and not wanting Robert Griffin III since they have committed big bucks to Sam Bradford at QB. They could trade down with another team, and the Dolphins and Redskins are reportedly actively searching for a new QB, with the Browns listed as another potential candidate and capable of providing the best trade package with the Rams. Nonsense! With all due respect to the experts, the Browns are the ones who hold all the cards for the 1st round. It is probably a foregone conclusion that the Colts will take Andrew Luck with the first pick, and the Vikings are committed to Ponder at QB, meaning they'll likely look to bolster their OL by taking OT Matt Kalil (USC) with the 3rd pick. That leaves Cleveland at #4 and determining the entire face of the 1st round. The truth is, Cleveland cannot lose with the #4 draft pick, and has no reason to move up.
If the Dolphins or Redskins trade up for the 2nd pick to take RGIII, that would still leave WR Juston Blackmon (Ok St) with the 4th selection, a position greatly in need for the Browns and a pick that would only help McCoy's downfield passing game. However, some analysts have proposed that instead of the Rams turning their #2 pick into multiple picks this year and next, they may go ahead and take Kalil at #2 to give Bradford more protection. This would entice the Vikings to select Blackmon to give Ponder the receiving weapon he didn't have this past season. Or perhaps vice versa, with the Rams taking Blackmon to give Bradford his #1 WR and the Vikings picking up Kalil at LT. Either way, this would mean RGIII would still be available at #4 and that would be too tempting for the Browns to pass up, and I would reluctantly have to agree.
Let's look at all the possible scenarios where Cleveland does not trade up to the #2 slot:
Scenario #1: Dolphins or Redskins trade up to #2.
Pick Team Player .
1. Colts QB, Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2. Redskins or Dolphins (Trade with Rams) QB, Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
3. Vikings OT, Matt Kalil (USC)
4. Browns WR, Juston Blackmon (Ok. State)
Scenario #2: Rams keep #2.
Pick Team Player .
1. Colts QB, Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2. Rams WR, Juston Blackmon (Ok. State) or OT, Matt Kalil (USC)
3. Vikings OT, Matt Kalil (USC) or WR, Juston Blackmon (Ok. State)
4. Browns QB, Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
Scenario #3: Dolphins or Redskins trade up to #2.
Pick Team Player .
1. Colts QB, Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2. Redskins or Dolphins (Trade with Rams) QB, Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
3. Vikings WR, Juston Blackmon (Ok. State)
4. Browns OT, Matt Kalil (USC)
Someone needs to show me where Cleveland is going to lose out by sticking with the 4th pick, because I don't see it. Either they're getting a #1 WR, a gift QB they can't refuse, or the right side of their OL they haven't had in several seasons, and they didn't have to sacrifice a later draft pick for any of those options. For anyone worried about the Browns not getting WR Blackmon, the Redskins and Eagles could be the only ones looking to sign a WR in the 1st round, and there will still be three legitimate draft choices after the 4th pick (Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffries). At least one will still be available by the time the Browns return at #22.
Now, if you've read anything about RGIII's educational prowess at Baylor, then you know he is incredibly intelligent. His scholastic record is quite impressive, so I have no doubt he could pick up new systems quickly, but there would still be growing pains. A new system, a new playbook, new receivers, new timing... plus his short and medium range accuracy is actually worse than longer routes. Miami is probably a better fit for RGIII, but Washington has always been more aggressive in pursuing players. So unless Cleveland trumps anything the Redskins offer to trade up with St. Louis, he would go to Washington and suffer behind an offensive line that, though improving, still provides poor protection, a receiver corps that is as bad as Cleveland's, and an offensive coordinator who hasn't shined much recently. I don't think the Browns would suffer in letting RGIII go, and I wouldn't complain if he was still sitting there at #4.
Still, if the Browns trade up to take RGIII it wouldn't be all that surprising. Holmgren didn't go out on a limb to draft McCoy and didn't give up anything to get him, as it was a surprise he fell so far in the 2010 draft. So if they determine after 1.5 seasons that he's not their QB of the future, they won't have egg on their face and only have to deal with McCoy's modest salary for one more year. If they let RGIII go to another club and he succeeds while McCoy struggles through another season, then not only could Shurmur be sent packing, but Holmgren and Heckert may also find it preferable to leave on their own rather than be fired, which is a shame considering H&H have done a pretty good job of setting the foundation for a really talented club.
In either case, whether it be through trades or some other scenario that the Browns end up with RGIII as their first pick, the big questions will be dealing with what the Redskins and Eagles do in the offseason and draft. With RGIII going to the Browns, then the Redskins will shift gears and focus on a WR in the first (#6), probably Michael Floyd (N.D.). If DeShaun Jackson's emotions are still sour and they are unable to resign their top receiver, then the Eagles are going to be looking to sign either Kendall Wright (Baylor) or Alshon Jeffries (S. Carolina) to fill that void at WR. If Jackson does resign with the Eagles, then they'll likely look at Kuechly (Boston College) at MLB. This means Cleveland has a chance to choose either Wright or Jeffries, and both are legitimate #1 WRs in the NFL. The Browns would then have to fill out their offensive line and backfields in the later rounds. No matter which WR is available, Cleveland needs to stay away from Michael Floyd. He's incredibly overrated and he won't stay out of trouble once he gets into the NFL.
And speaking of emotions running high, if Peyton Hillis doesn't resign with the Browns, then there is a chance the Browns will sign top RB Trent Richardson (Alabama) with their first pick, and again I would reluctantly agree with that decision, although #4 is probably too high for Richardson considering no other club is looking for a RB until the mid-1st. As badly as they need a WR who can stretch defenses, there is no passing game without a running game.
I also have this interesting idea that the Rams new coaching staff could go a separate direction, and may work with Cleveland on a trade in which they receive the Browns #4 in exchange for QB Sam Bradford. The Rams would then use their #2 for RGIII and the #4 for their WR or OT. Don't laugh at it, Shurmur was Bradford's offensive coordinator in St. Louis in 2010, and there was definitely something missing in Bradford's game between 2010 and last season. Of course, the Browns would also probably want some salary cap relief from St. Louis on Bradford's contract, and likely wouldn't do the deal until after the signing bonus period. I'm hoping this doesn't happen though.
It's too early to go through the entire draft at this time given no offseason moves have been made yet, but here is my breakdown of the first round for Cleveland. Once the senior bowls and offseason activities begin, we'll have a better idea of what condition the Browns' roster is in.
1st Round – #4
WR – Juston Blackmon, Oklahoma St.
The Browns would be wise to pick up a veteran WR in free agency, but Blackmon could be a #1 as a rookie.
QB – Robert Griffin III, Baylor
If somehow RGIII is still there at #4, and that is a real possibility, then the Browns will take him and I wouldn’t argue against it. I wouldn’t give up multiple picks to get him, but it would be too tempting to pass him up if he was there come time to select.
OT – Matt Kalil, USC
It is possible that Cleveland could be looking at their starting RT and back-up LT in Kalil when #4 comes around. That would be almost as tempting as RGIII. If Luck, RGIII, and Blackmon are gone, then Kalil would be my choice, so long as Hillis has resigned with the club.
HB – Trent Richardson, Alabama
If Peyton Hillis does not resign with the Browns, then Cleveland needs a RB and Richardson is the #1 RB in the draft. Still, I find it difficult to see the Browns taking Richardson at #4. No other team is looking for a RB except NY Jets and New England, and they fall farther back in the first round. Cleveland could trade down for even more picks and still get Richardson before the Jets.
1st Round – #22
WR – Kendall Wright, Baylor or Alshon Jeffries, S. Carolina
If Cleveland doesn’t get a WR in free agency or with the 4th draft pick, then they should be looking for one at #22. The Redskins and Eagles both are looking for WRs, and the Redksins (#6) will likely look to South Bend’s Michael Floyd. If the Eagles (#15) resign DeShaun Jackson, then both Wright and Jeffries may be available at the time the Browns make their second pick (#22). Kendall Wright is my top choice between the two, and pairing him with RGIII again would be ideal.
OT/OG – Zebrie Sanders, Florida State, Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State, or Mike Adams, Ohio State
Sanders is strong and quick on his feet, and would be capable of starting right away at either guard or tackle in the NFL. What Cleveland does in free agency to address the right side of the OL would determine which position he would fill.
Osemele is huge at over 340lbs, and could probably lose 20 lbs and still be great. But offensive line coaches want their lineman to be as big as they can be effective. He too could start right away at RG or RT, but Cleveland doesn’t have a great track record of grooming offensive lineman. One of the benefits of grabbing Osemele is that it keeps him away from the Ravens, who reportedly are high on him. But that should be a benefit and not a motivation. Mike Adams is one of the biggest understated linemen in the draft this year, likely due to his early season suspension. His skills are as good and NFL-ready as any other OT in the draft not named Kalil. I'm betting his stock rises after the Senior Bowl and combines.
MLB – Luke Kuechly, Boston College
This all depends on D’Qwell Jackson and the Eagles. D’Qwell is going to ask for top dollar, and given his history of injuries and the Browns historically tight purse strings, they could fail to resign him. Kuechly is the best MLB in the draft and could drop this far depending on the Eagles. If Philly has to sign a WR with the 15th pick, then Kuechly is there for the taking and he would be an absolute necessity without Jackson holding down the centerpiece of Cleveland’s 4-3 defense. He has the strength to stuff the inside run, the speed to beat backs to the corner, and the agility to cover receivers. A 4-3 defense can work with so-so OLBs, but a strong MLB is a must.
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