November 28, 2011

Musings From March 4, 2009 - The Cleveland Browns Draft Needs

So… This was my initial thoughts on the Browns 2009 preseason options before going into a lot of research, and certainly before Donte Stallworth’s horrific traffic incident.

Hey Pop,

Since I'll be deployed all next year and won't get a chance to even comment on 2010 when it gets here, I'm blessing you early with some initial thoughts on the Browns offseason.

First, there seems to be a number of nickle and dime decisions the Browns front office have made over the last several seasons, paying little for all rookies with questionable health, skills, or both, or guys who are unproven or over the hill and hoping for a diamond in the rough (i.e., Anderson, Winslow, Edwards, Bentley, McGinest, and pretty much the entire defense falls into this category). Why haven't the Browns gone after some of these free agents and potential trade bait who are actually proven, and then make draft decisions for the future?  Specifically, I'm thinking of things like...

Anquan Boldin, WR – Its highly unlikely Boldin would come to Cleveland, but they do have a second round pick that I think makes sense in a trade proposal to Arizona. More on that later.

Torry Holt, WR - STL must really be thinking about starting from scratch to get rid of this guy. What a mentor he could be to a rookie WR or one that has been crying to the media.  He has been a consummate professional his entire career and even if he only produced 10 TD receptions the last 2 years, some of that can be contributed to the team he was on. He would compliment Edwards very well considering Edwards issues with his hands. Plus, without Winslow, Jr. in Cleveland any longer Edwards would need a friend. I think Holt is a definite upgrade to Stallworth who barely touched the field last year.  He's not much for outside routes either.  He needs to be a slot and find seams in the defenses to hide in, much like his role in past systems.

And if they cannot pick up Holt, then how about trying to keep Stallworth healthy enough to get him opposite Edwards for more than one game this year (if Stallworth is still with the team in a couple months), and then pick-up Jerry Porter (JAC) from free agency.  He can still play slot receiver even if he has lost a step, and has had fairer hands his entire career than Steptoe (rumored to be trying him out at flanker). 

Orlando Pace, OL - I know what you're thinking. He may be at the end of his career, but he should be healthy for the first time in 2+ years (definitely run a thorough physical on him).  And at 33 years of age he still has another year or two to produce.  It would certainly help to have him on the other side of the offensive line from their only other decent OL (Joe Thomas, OT), and you don't turn away the knowledge of an 8-year Pro-Bowler and Super Bowl champ (who by the way is also from Sandusky, OH).  If the price is right, take him. Offer a 4-year contract with 2 guaranteed (it will lighten the cap by spreading it out over the years even when you know he likely won't be around that long). At least those 2 years he's on the squad will also give time to groom the next OL draft pick or FA pick-up.

Ken Lucas, CB - He's a proven veteran who started 49 of 50 games with the Panthers since 2005 with 13 interceptions... and both stats far outweigh the production Cleveland has gotten from any of their DB's since 2005.  He was burnt a few times late last season, which may be an indication of his age catching him at the end of the season (31)... but I'm willing to bet that the fact he had to veto Carolina's attempt last month to trade him to DETROIT, plus the Panther's then outright release to save salary cap room, will upset him off enough that his desire to prove himself will offset any possible age-related deficiencies. He's another safe gamble for a low guarantee-high incentive contract for 2-3 years. Anything to give Cleveland's boyscout-like secondary a chance to mature.

S. Heiden, TE – He’s not a free agent, but they should definitely keep him with a raise because he was always better than Winslow at blocking and, although not the receiver Winslow is, he doesn't cause problems in the locker room. Winlsow, for all his talent, is a better sight in Cleveland's rear view mirror. Plus, Heiden will hopefully be able to play every Sunday for another season or two, unlike Winslow who hasn’t been able to escape the injury bug.

Beau Bell, LB - He's been on the bench for a year and now its time to test him. During his last year in college had had over 120 takles and forced 5 fumbles, so he hits hard and gets to the runner. But he also led the team in interceptions (4), so he can read QBs and has good hands. Just how many LBs in the NFL had 4 INT's last year? Size and speed are comparable to Ray Lewis. He could start at ILB or be a project MLB. Time to put him in next to DQ and test him.

G. Ruegamer, OG - Giants made a mistake in getting rid of this bubba. He's a proven vetern back-up that can handle a starting job, and did for most of last year.  Given the poor shape of Cleveland offensive line, he could and should step right in.  Steinbach (G/C) and Joe Thomas (OT) are the only reliable OL for the Browns, even if Steinbach hasn't produced yet like I thought he could. Tucker has a wealth of experience, but between his age, nagging injuries, and legitimate issues outside football he's not exactly a reliable every day lineman.
  
Kato June, LB – Not completely sold on this. He's a little undersized at 6'0" and 230lbs, but he's a madman on the line of scrimmage and hits harder than a truck. He's a prior pro-bowler who still impressed opposing coaches with his play last year in TB and finished with 70 takles in limited downs.  He's only 29 and more to the point, he is the best LB left in free agency.

First Round Draft ideas....
Draft Pick # 5 - if the Lions or Seahawks are foolish enough to take a QB in the first 4 picks, then Cleveland has a realistic shot at either Curry (LB) or B.J. Raji (DT) with the # 5.  This would enable them to start fixing that front seven they've assembled over the last 5 years, or let go of Rogers whose constantly complains to the media that he wants to be traded anyways. However. they likely will not be available by the 5th selection. Regardless, I would definitely stay away from Everitt Brown (Florida State, DE / LB), presumably a favorite to go to Cleveland as the #5 selection. When's the last time a Florida school LB was worthy of a First round selection... Ray Lewis?  And he's no Ray Lewis. Instead they should take a CB, perhaps Jenkins out of Ohio State or even LB Laurenitis.  Sure, he'd be a home-state favorite and the pressure would be on him to succeed, but I like them A LOT.  Still, I haven’t seen an OSU LB make it in the biggs since Speilman. Even Ta’il Diggs was a career back-up with little upside.

Second Round Draft ideas...
Draft Pick #36 - A running back would be nice but not likely. It would be hard pressed to expect more than one of the few proven RB's Wells (OSU), Moreno (UGA), Brown (UConn)] to be left after the first round, but depending on what those staffs have seen during the combine and what they truly need, realistically at least "one" of them could still be available when the Browns come back around at pick #36 (if they haven't traded it to the Cards for WR Boldin, which they should). Only their pro day workouts can improve their selection status. Regardless of the workouts, both run hard, can run for short distances, and can catch... though Brown is the better receiver.  A good-hands running back is necessary to protect the QB on quick outs when the OL is still growing and learning because there will be less protection time in the pocket... and Quinn is not a tough kid so he'll be throwing quickly. Unfortunately, this illness cannot be remedied by going to FA market...

So there are at least 2 sensible options for their second round pick.  First is M. Oher (OT, OleMiss). Yeah, he has history of trouble off-field, but a once-projected top 10 pick is now being considered a long shot to get selected before the end of the second round because of his past behavior issues.  It's not an unsafe selection if the execs can wrangle an agreement for a high-base/low signing bonus contract rich in incentives for production before the selection. If Orlando Pace was in uniform, he could take the first year stress and burden off Oher.  As well, Oher could learn from a master like Pace, which is all the better. Pace has incredible upside, and I’m willing to get he’ll be gone by this pick, but it’s not certain. In looking at the positives of the negatives (if that makes sense), by playing behind Pace, Oher likely wouldn't make the incentives in his contract, so the organization won't have to pay any extra to him. If he screws up again legally, they don't lose a starter with Pace in place, and Oher's salary is docked since the NFL would suspend him anyways, so that's in the bank as well. And if he just becomes too much to handle, release him and eat what little you've guaranteed him in the first place. It's low risk compared to the potential rewards...  of course, they have bigger concerns on defense that definitely needs to be addressed early before this fantasy scenario would be played out.  If only Cleveland had picked up a free agent DL this could have been possible (and C.J. Mosely doesn't fit the bill...  a four year - 3 team player with less than 10 tackles/season average and only 5 starts is not the answer Cleveland needed, regardless of what General Manager Kokinis says about him.

Second option is M. Johnson (DE, Georgia Tech).  This is the one I think makes the most sense. He had a great career and is an animal. His combine and pro-day workouts were unsurpassed.  But there are those out there that are questioning his desire to continue to perform at a high level and at the next level.  My rebuttal: There was someone else just like that about 14-15 years ago.  His name was Jason Taylor.  Regardless of how ineffective he was last year for the Redskins, can anyone deny the impact Taylor had all those years in Miami? He's a potential hall of Famer now. And Johnson has the same potential and even better skills.  Plus, his combine workout was better than expected while most other defensive prospects have been disappointing thus far (save for Curry).

Draft Pick # 50 - Sean Smith (CB, Utah) or Louis Delmas (S, WMU).  Delmas did better in every category during the combine than what was expected of him.  He’s a great athlete. Smith is huge (6-3, 215lbs) for a CB, but his times were slower than hoped for during the workouts.  He may be a better fit at safety, but CB in the NFL is unlikely at this time. If only Smith could hang around to the third round, then Cleveland could go Jenkins/Laurenitis, Johnson, Smith... selections for CB/LB, DE, and S, and in the process helping the future of that poor defense and focus on gap filler selections for the offense. Face it, they need defense, and anything they do now for the offense after the first draft day is a temporary fix at best (barring some miraculous trade for a game changer).

So after all is said and done, this is the signinficant parts that Cleveland would have if I were GM:

Move to a West Coast Offense:
OT - Joe Thomas
OG - Ruegamer(FA) or E. Steinbach
  C - Steinback or G. Ruegamer(FA)
OG - * fill with roster
OT - Pace (FA) 
WR - Edwards
WR - T. Holt (FA)
WR - Stallworth
TE  - Heiden
QB - Anderson or Quinn
RB - J. Lewis (P.Allen RB subst, there are no RB FA's worthy.)

3-4 Defense (not sure a 3-4 D is a good decision, but it’s what Mangini knows:
DL - Robaire Smith
DL - Rogers (if can keep him happy) 
DL - M. Johnson (primary choice for 2nd Rd #36)
LB - K. Wimbley (rushing LB who so far hasn't rushed the QB well)
LB - K. June (FA)
LB - B. Bell (test him in preseason)
LB - D. Jackson (likely his last year along with Wimbley unless one or the other break out)
DB - K. Lucas (FA) 
DB - E. Wright  (1st RD #5 Jenkins DB subst at CB for Wright or Lucas)
DB - M. Adams (ugh!)
DB - * fill from roster  (subst. S. Smith 3rd Rd #50 if he was still available) or Tank Williams (FA from NE)

 Just my thoughts.

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